9:22 Laurie McGuirk
Gold slapped hard to $414 on liquidation into no buyers - seems a big drop with no currency equivalent move. I didn't expect to see this level at all and I am acting accordingly (not advice).
9:16 Todd Harrison
Short people have no reason....
Move over Randy Newman, my derivative contacts are telling me that the overnight price action has caught a lot of professionals by surprise and that the short base is rather low. Not a shocker, I suppose, as most folks have been lining up for the "inevitable" upside break out.
We've seen this movie before (NDX 1500) but please remember that the script is still being written (with each incremental data point). And remember, there is a simultaneous bull and bear market in motion at all times. The final tally each day is the residual residue from that friction.
9:11 Todd Harrison
Why don't you call me when you have no class?
The critters ready for a new day of school as I ping back and forth with the savvy Rich Gula. We're talkin' tape, gaps and levels as we eyeball the S&P 200-day along with every other active Minyan in the universe. Will it hold or will it fold? The devil will emerge in today's details...
The breadth has been such a strong intraday tell that it would be foolish not to use that as a primary guide. The financials (on the heels of Mother Merrill (MER:NYSE)) will share top honors as BKX par (100) and XBD 130 are the levels to monitor. Filling out the top tri-fecta, crude matters today as it's the collective focus and perception is reality.
The nets and semis will be posture city in front of tonight's unknowns (Intel (INTC:NASD) and Yahoo! (YHOO:NASD)) and retail, the cyclicals (CYC 700), small caps and trannies round out out A.D.D spree.
Eight days left in the Minyan weight bet....somebody please feed me!
9:07 Greg Collins
When it Raines, it pours...
According to our friends at streetaccount, eight holders of Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE) have filed lawsuits against the company and management over accounting policies.
9:05 Greg Collins
NCR Corporation (NCR:NYSE) is guiding Q3 to $0.40 vs. $0.20 cons on revs of $1.44-$1.45 bln (vs. $1.39 bln cons).
8:59 Greg Collins
The Redbook chain store sales index for 10/9 came in (0.8%).
8:58 Greg Collins
Commerce Bancorp (CBH:NYSE) reported Q3 EPS of $0.84 vs. $0.83 cons on revs of $364.5 mln vs. $363.2 mln cons
8:44 Greg Collins
According to officials, Pakistan has successfully launched a missile with nuclear capabilities and an estimated range of 1,500 kilometers, or the ability to reach most major cities in India.
8:42 Greg Collins
CSFB reiterated its outperform rating for Motorola (MOT:NYSE) saying that the upside potential for Q4 is strong due to margin expansion in '05 from product cost reductions and high end handsets.
8:32 Greg Collins
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK:NYSE) is reportedly in talks with U.S. regulators to sell Fluarix, a flu vaccine, in the U.S.
Even if allowed, the company would not be able to produce enough doses for the current flu season.
8:32 Greg Collins
A Russian court ruled that Yukos must pay an additional $1.34 bln, bringing their total liabilities to $7.45 bln.
The Russian Justice Ministry also announced it will sell off part of the company's assets since an evaluation of the company has been completed.
8:32 Greg Collins
Gannett Co (GCI:NYSE) reported Q3 EPS of $1.18 vs $1.19 cons on revs of $1.82 bln vs $1.79 bln cons.
8:31 Greg Collins
Bloomberg is reporting that the Nigerian crude pipeline is on fire and could disrupt supply.
8:31 Greg Collins
Chiron (CHIR:NASD) announced it received a grand jury subpoena from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York requesting certain documents and materials relating to its Fluvirin influenza virus vacine.
The stock is trading down approximately $1 on the news pre-market.
8:26 Greg Collins
J.P. Morgan downgraded Whole Foods (WFMI:NASD) from neutral to underweight.
8:22 Greg Collins
M&T Bank (MTB:NYSE) reported Q3 EPS of $1.56 vs $1.51 cons with ROE of +13.2% and ROA of +1.42%.
8:22 Jason Roney
In Crested Butte, we discussed the intraday behavior of SP futures after large gaps. If the SP futures open lower by -.75% today (they're flirting with that level right now), here's a recap from CB:
General: (1) There is a 77% chance of a lower close; (2) the SP "fills the gap" just 43% of the time; and (3) there is a 75% probability of at least a .35% intraday retracement to the upside.
Close Relative to the Open: The action AFTER the first hour can be an indicator of the day's close: (1) when the high of the day is made inside the first 1 1/2 hours, there is a 70% probability of closing below the open whereas (2) if a new low is made after the first hour, the odds of a lower close increase to 97% and the probability of closing below the open is more than 75%
8:13 Todd Harrison
Lest we forget...
With crude hoggin' the spotlight and earnings painting the tape, please keep S&P 1120 on ye trading radar. The recently simultaneous rally through both the NDX and S&P 200-day spurred the technical herd to climb aboard this beast.
8:13 Greg Collins
NASDAQ charts in the IBD...
JOSB, NTAP, AVTR, BJRI, CHTT, MGRC, NUCO, STSA, UTIW, USAP, VNBC, ARLP, AMED, BSTE, CRDN, VLCCF, QCOM, SYMC, URBN, WBSN, WIBC
8:13 Greg Collins
NYSE charts in the IBD...
DVA, WGR, BRG, BOH, BCS, BNN, EV, FIF, HD, IPS, KMI, MTB, SRX, SSL, STO, TST, CME
8:11 Greg Collins
Well, now your back's gonna hurt, 'cause you just pulled landscaping duty. Anybody else's fingers hurt?... I didn't think so.
A study commissioned by Prime Minister Blair's government highlighted that Britons must work until age 70 or pay $102 bln a year more in taxes to maintain income for retirees over the next five decades.
8:09 Greg Collins
CIBC lowered estimates for Broadcom (BRCM:NASD) saying that Q3 guidance looks acheivable but that the Q4 estimates for sequential growth are too optimistic as the firm sees further downside in Dec with ServerWorks weakness.
The firm maintains its sector perform rating for BRCM.
8:09 Greg Collins
Bear Stearns remains concerned about Citigroup's (C:NYSE) ability to produce earnings without acquisitions along with the potential for reduced growth expectations.
The firm maintains its underperform rating for C.
8:04 Greg Collins
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE) reported Q3 EPS of $0.78 vs $0.76 cons on revs of $11.6 vs $11.29 bln cons.
8:03 Greg Collins
In case you missed it...
MDC Holdings (MDC:NYSE) reported Q3 EPS of $3.07 vs $2.73 cons on revs of $1.03 bln vs $1.02 bln cons.
The company said they expect Q4 EPS to "exceed significantly" Q3's and sees home closings of 4,400 in Q4 vs 3,558 in Q3.
8:02 Laurie McGuirk
Base metals slammed in London with nickel down 5%+,copper nearly 3%, zinc 3.5% etc. Oil above $54 a barrel still while silver and gold back sub pre-Friday levels after what MacTeer said about the dollar is amazing.
7:59 Greg Collins
RBC Capital upgraded Radio Shack (RSH:NYSE) from sector perform to outperform and raised Q3 EPS estimates from $0.39 to $0.40 and '05 estimates from $2.25 to $2.35 citing solid fundamentals.
7:59 Greg Collins
Amkor Technology (AMKR:NASD) discloses an informal SEC inquiry relating to trading in the securities of AMKR.
The company believes the inquiry relates to transactions in the company's securities by certain individuals, possibly insiders, during 2004.
7:57 Greg Collins
Bear Stearns upped Pacific Sunwear (PSUN:NASD) from peer perform to outperform citing management solidification with the hiring of Seth Johnson.
7:56 Greg Collins
CSFB lowered Q3 gross margin estimates for NVDIA (NVDA:NASD) from 32.2% to 31% citing discounts on older products and inventory workdown.
7:52 Greg Collins
State Street (STT:NYSE) reports Q3 EPS of $0.55 vs. $0.65 cons on revs of 1.17 bln vs 1.27 bln cons.
7:51 Greg Collins
UBS lowered First Data Corp (FDC:NYSE) from buy to neutral citing valuation and long-term competition.
7:48 Greg Collins
J.P. Morgan upped AT&T (T:NYSE) from underweight to neutral
7:48 Greg Collins
Friedman Billings punted Eli Lilly (LLY:NYSE) from outperform to market perform and lowered its '05 EPS estimate from $3.26 to $3.15 citing weakening prescription trends, specifically Zyprexa.
7:47 Greg Collins
UBS chain store sales for 10/9 came in at +0.5% vs. +0.3% prior.
7:41 Greg Collins
Bear Stearns raised Q3 estimates on EBay (EBAY:NASD) to $0.27 vs. $0.27 cons on revs of $791 mln vs $778.6 mln cons and moved its target price to $105 from $95.
7:38 Todd Harrison
Lots on tap as we ready our rap and awake to find a backhanded slap. S's down 8, Nazz down 15, crude north of $54, silver off 2.5%, the dollar up 65 bips, Europe gettin' thumped (remember those "red 13's?")....and you were bored yesterday?!? No mas, Minyans, as it's crunch time in Critter City.
As an aside, and just for fun, I just took 50:1 odds that crude ticks at $42 before the election. It's been a punk thought for the last week but a certain energy maven pinged me first thing this morning to opine on my "nice call" so I figured I'd scoop some odds and make it interesting. Nothin' crazy--just a Benjamin--but figured I'd share.
7:38 Greg Collins
Merrill Lynch (MER:NYSE) reported Q3 EPS of $0.93 vs. $0.92 cons on revs of $4.84 bln vs. $4.94 bln cons.
7:33 Greg Collins
Morgan Stanley's Mark Edelstone sees continued risks to the semi industry saying that fundamentals deteriorated in Q3 and risks to growth in the global economy suggest that semi demand could continue to fall short of expectations in Q4 and Q1.
Edelstone added that stocks have now discounted a large portion of this risk.
7:26 Greg Collins
LG Phillips LCD (LPL:NYSE) is off 10% in Asian trading because it reported a surprisingly large fall in profits and warned of a further slide in flat-screen prices.
LPL said that LCD prices dropped about 20%in the Sept quarter and would fall another 19-32% by the end of first half '05.
7:24 Greg Collins
Jefferies cuts Capital One Financial (COF:NYSE), Providian Financial (PVN:NYSE), and MBNA Corp (KRB:NYSE) from buy to hold on valuation as well as margin pressures resulting from lower asset growth.
7:13 Greg Collins
Bloomberg is attributing part of the move in the dollar (its best gain in two weeks against the yen) to yesterday's U.S. tax legislation allowing firms to bring home overseas profits at a tax rate of 5.25% (down from 35%) which could inspire American companies to bring home a greater portion of overseas earnings.
7:10 Greg Collins
Bear Stearns (BSC:NYSE) announced that it is checking email from 109 employees in its brokerage unit to examine whether executives approved improper mutual fund trades.
7:09 Greg Collins
Baird cut oil service names BJ Services (BJS:NYSE) and Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE) to neutral from outperform citing valuation as stock prices are already discounting expected earnings improvement.
7:07 Greg Collins
Crude oil climbed to a record high for a sixth consecutive day and thru $54 / brl after an International Energy Agency report indicated demand is rising faster than expected.
The IEA's monthly report on oil indicated world demand will climb by 2.71 mln barrels a day to 82.4 mln barrels a day in '04 representing a rise of 190,000 more barrels above last months estimated.
7:01 Greg Collins
Piper Jaffray cuts Analog Devices (ADI:NYSE) to underperform from market perform and lowered Q4 EPS to $0.38 vs. $0.43 cons on revs of 689 mln vs. 714 mln cons.
The firm expects ADI's overall business to remain weak across end markets and as a result they reduced their target price to $32 from $38.
6:56 Greg Collins
Investor confidence in Europe's largest economy, Germany, fell to its lowest level in nearly 16 months during October (from 38.4 to 31.3) as higher energy prices, concerns about unemployment and a timid consumer threaten the pace of growth according to the Zew Center for European Economic Research's index of institutional and analyst sentiment.
6:50 Greg Collins
Last night, Smith Barney punted Sandisk (SNDK:NASD) from hold to sell citing unfavorable risk/reward ratio and heightened risk for the next 3-6 months.
6:42 Greg Collins
Good morning. Traders trudge into this Tuesday to find foreign markets in a bed of red with the Nikkei -1.30% leading Asian trading lower while the Hang Seng slipped -0.40%.
The European bourses are also trading lower with the FTSE -0.67%, CAC -1.05%, and the DAX -1.26%. The dollar index (DXY) has surged 61 bps in the early innings to 88.15 after teetering at the Sep low (87.34). For their part, the stateside futes are below fair value.
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