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The Natural Evolution


This is play-off trading--the regular season got you here but this, my friends, will define our '06 legacy.


"Red, it took me sixteen years to get here. You play me, and I'll give ya the best I got."
Roy Hobbs

Good morning and welcome back to the earnings shack. We've waited in vain for this day to arrive as we ready ourselves for the fundie deep-dive. With the technical, structural and psychological metrics "out there," corporate
is cleaning their cleats and stepping to the plate.

Leading off was Alcoa, which whiffed on the first pitch and was promptly hit for 7%. One inning does not a series make, we know, but the crowd is on the edge of their seats as they await the rest of the line-up. We've spoken, at length, about the power of perspective and the coming weeks will help shape that collective mindset.

Hoofy is courting Goldilocks (no milk for him!) as he looks for the "just right" environment into year-end. He's got the technical metric in his back pocket above S&P 1340 and BKX 114 and wants last licks at those levels when the dust settles. Indeed, as the big picture is made up of a million smaller pictures, that's one snap shot he won't want to lose.

Boo, as recently discussed, is eyeing the broader structural shift. He lost some Street cred when he pounded his paws pointing to the CRB, which broke the five year trendline six weeks ago. The commodities have been heavy ever since--the current churn notwithstanding--and remain on his watch list through an "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" lens.

The big, brown bear has also been eyeing the dollar as a potential strike two. The greenback has a five year trendline of its own--lower, as we know--and is currently poking and prodding to the upside.

He's been fielding a lot of questions from the Minyanship pointing to historical examples of a stronger dollar in concert with a stronger tape and he doesn't dispute that. He's simply saying that, in the post-bubble world, reflation efforts have jacked all asset classes at the expense of the greenback.

If that begins to unwind--and that's a monster if--it will be far from bullish. As he's trying to figure out this tape along with the rest of us, he's trying to give us a heads up that lower commodities and a higher dollar are conditional elements of that dynamic.

We begin today's Hump Day spin with Europe pretty in pink, the dollar and metals flattish and pre-opening futes somewhat softer. That'll all change on a dime, Minyans, so please take a long, hard look at your risk and make sure that it's either defined (trading risk) or that you've got the flexibility and conviction to buy lower and sell higher.

This is play-off trading--the regular season got you here but this, my friends, will define our '06 legacy.

Good luck today.

Positions in financials, energy, metals

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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