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Tom Cat

By

Eat your heart out Iman!

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Ground Control to Major Tom
Ground Control to Major Tom
Take your protein pills
And put your helmet on

(David Bowie)


Good morning and welcome back to the air attack. The jet lag is gone and the mojo is right as the critters get set to take a new flight. They've strapped themselves into the cockpit anew and will take a fresh look once they've got a good view. "My missiles are hot and I've got a good shot," said Lieutenant Boo while picking his spots, "I like what I see and I like it a lot as risk still remains to the Matador plot." Can he lock and load and deliver the goods or will the bear simply schvitz in the woods? We'll know soon enough as we ready to thrill and ready this pup for a romp in the 'Ville.

There is a certain déjà vu to this current juncture as we've been through this auto angst before. Minyans will recall the squall that was GM junk and the subsequent press that led to a group hug. The Dephi dip is similar in a sense but validating in others. There's little doubt that the auto industry-or, banks that happen to sell cars-have some underlying issues. The question is really one of acceptance and psychology as perception slowly plays ketchup with reality.

I offered in Ojai that our finance based economy is intricately interwoven. Like the hip bone is connected to the jaw bone, General Motors is connected to Fannie Mae is connected to General Electric, JP Morgan, Ford and a bevy of other behemoths. The derivative maze is nothing new, of course, and we've discussed the delicate difference between containment vs. contagion. Betting that "it matters now" may be a low probability affair but discounting it entirely is asking for trouble.

While I'm conscious that my tone has an ursine flavor to it, I'll offer that I spend a fair amount of time in Matador City. I've been diggin' the metals and energy for quite some time and look to play those sectors from the long side. With that said, the action in the banks (the BKX closed at fresh '05 lows), a negative skew of the internals, an ever-complacent dip shtick and defined risk above (S&P 1200) has Boo's finger on the trigger and looking for fresh targets. Factor in the preannouncement season (UIS, XLNX, NOC) and the prospect of saucy Santa (high heating costs, empty stockings) and we've got lots to think about as we edge ahead.

On an entirely more upbeat note, I wanna share a few vibes from the land of giving. The Ruby Peck Foundation September drive for disaster relief has surpassed $50,000. We're still finalizing some numbers but I wanted to share the "Ruby wink" with ye faithful. And, many thanks to Minyan Steve Haughey for stepping up on the gold coin auction. While he won the fun with a bid of $1526, he insisted on pledging his entire "hidden bid" ($3000) to the cause. Noice.

A heart felt "thanks" to everyone who helped us help those in need. Excellent work indeed and I'm proud to dig in beside you each day. You're proof positive that there are good peeps in this business who believe that success isn't measured solely by the bottom line. The Minyanville community is indeed human capital at its finest.

Good luck today.


R.P.

position in jpm

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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