By Todd Harrison Oct 01, 2004 9:19 am
I'm more than willing to jump out of a cake!
- While we've been hustlin' for three years to build the Minyanville community, today is the critters "official" two year birthday. It's been a heck of a haul--more than I could have possibly imagined--but they're still dancing with rings on their noses and bells on their shoes! I'm gonna try to pen some reflections this afternoon and share some of the twists, turns, ups, downs, smiles and cries. And thank you Minyans---without our readership, the critters would be nomadic wonders of visions unfinished.
- My thoughts on the debate were consistent with the vibes I'm picking up from the mainstream press. I felt that Kerry was relatively composed and Bush tended to be on the defensive. I also thought that Dubya's "go to" lines ("this is hard work") were grasped at a few times too many. I'm not a political analyst (and this isn't that type of community) but we must discuss the process as it will have implications for the financial markets. Remember, there's a very muddled and confused middle and a seismic shift will decide who goes for the Pennsylvania Avenue ride. For my part, I have a bit more clarity but haven't made a definitive decision yet.
- We flagged a slew of foreign central bank selling fixed income yesterday. There was also chatter on Tuesday that the Gov't of Singapore was unloading Nazz futures. China recently bought Canada's biggest mining company. The dollar has been gettin' hit with the ugly stick. We all see the theme. The zillion dollar question is whether we're in the first inning of this game and, perhaps more importantly, how fast the game will be played.
- The S&P will open "around" S&P 1118 which is, of course, the 200-day moving average. Other important zones to monitor today include the cyclicals (CYC 708 is an all-time high), Russell 567 (below) and 576 ('04 trendline), BKX 97.5-98 (there now), Retail holders (RTH) 91 (200-day), NDX 1440 (200-day magnet?), XBD 130 (if and when), DOW 10,109 (50-day), TRAN 3270 (previous perch) and Toddo 216.5 (I didn't just fall off the wagon last night, I ate the wagon!
- Hoofy is focused on tight corporate speeds, performance anxiety, greater risk appetite (new quarter), the perception of a strengthening economy and potential electoral clarity. Boo is staring at hat size volatility, continued fundamental slips, a schvitz-show at Fannie (FNM:NYSE) (where there's smoke...) and the type of general malaise that only the genius possess and the insane lament.
- Uber-Minyan Steve Shobin--who has set the technical standard that is followed in the Street--believes that the economy is climbing a wall of worry. He likes to look at the Wolverine sentiment and senses that it needs to get up to 125/130 before it gets outright "giddy". That vibe jibes nicely with the Iron Horse and the Matador Crowd.
- The English Channel is giggling green as the FTSE, CAC, DAX (and the peripherals) are all higher by 1.5%. The dollar has started the session with a dead ca....er, with a meow bounce (+33 gips), metals are flattish (firm on the heels of yesterday's squeal) and our futes are pointing due north. Watch the breadth (was the hand holder yesterday), the piggies (at their resistance), semis (on the fresh love) and, of course, we'll need to keep an eye on the macro shack.
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