The Chain Gang
By Todd Harrison Oct 01, 2003 1:58 pm
Well you can fall for chains of silver
You can fall for chains of gold
You can fall for pretty strangers
And the promises they hold
The afternoon gamble continues to scramble and--blink and ya missed it--we're right back at the exact levels of one week ago. I don't know about you, but that sure seems like a whole heckuva lotta work to come full circle! Wouldn't it have been a better trade to leave last Wednesday, spend the week relaxing and come back today fresh and zesty? Hey, if wishes were knishes...
Back to life, back in reality, the green screens continue to scream as traders hop on the trampoline. While I am naturally suspect of the sexy sirens (who, me?), my eyes keep drifting to the minty breadth in the S&P. Whenever you have four winners for every loser, it's hard to make a compelling case for the short side (at least for the day). That doesn't mean a reversal of fortune can't happen, mind you, but it's been our best tell and it's got a decent smell.
Hoofy will argue that today's action--as it stands--is significant on a few fronts. First, the pattern of distribution (in place for two weeks) has reversed and stocks are being accumulated en masse. We've seen this before during this dry spell (September 23) only to see the distribution continue the next day. The stochastic buy signals (S&P and NDX) point to a more sustainable bounce but, again, the tape suffered technical damage last week and that won't magically disappear (like my hair).
Senor Beeks will swing by tomorrow with the initial jobless claims (exp. 395k) and factory orders (exp. -.5%). As discussed in this morning's opening missive, each data point will be dissected by the "does the economic data support a robust recovery?" crowd. My contention remains that a jobless recovery is a trip through fantasy land but, hey, none of the caps on my hat rack reads "economist."
For all you red blooded American baseball fans, let it be known that Canadian Stéphane Vigeant was the first to identify Chipper Jones (1999) as the answer for today's trivia, eh? For that, he'll be sportin' a Minyanville tee of his choice during the upcoming hockey season! Despair not, fellow Minyans, as there's more where that came from! In honor of Minyanville's one year anniversary, the critters are standing by with a fresh supply of shirts, fleeces, cookies and art work!
Along those lines, I am overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of kind emails received today in support of our collective mission. It hasn't always been easy--and it hasn't always been fun--but we dared to dream and you've come along for the ride. For that, we thank you! The vision of philanthropic education remains strong and as we forge ahead, the critters eyes remain on the prize!
As always, I hope this finds you well.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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