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Random Thoughts


...we don't highlight our winners without noting our sinners...

  • Thank you Paine Webber? Nah. Donke Shoen Goldman Sachs!

  • Keep an eye on the greenback as it begins to grind higher. DXY 85 "should" provide a level of resistance as it's the right shoulder of some very pronounced dandruff.
  • Breadth? Somewhere between day old milk and old gum (2:1 negative).

  • The financials? They're hanging tough, as the XBD is still hanging in Matador City and the BKX is off a scant 25 bips.

  • O-Dog's Crew? The Homies are still green, albeit in an idling position. Only time will tell if that group gets jacked...

  • Shrinkage? No, Sealand!

  • Ya'll see that OPEC began implementing their February production cuts today (as a function of the steep drop in crude)?

  • Nationali...sorry, the rest of that word got cut in half. Sorta like VNT, which is off 30% today on the heels of Hugo's Chavez.

  • You say Hugo, I say Chavez. Hugo Chavez! Hugo Chavez!

  • Hey, look on the bright side. It could be worse. It could be raining.

  • Commodities are getting beaten like a red headed baby seal. Conventional wisdom is that this is "good" for the tape (lower input costs). My (humble) sense is that asset classes are inextricably interlinked (vs. the dollar) and the volatility in the "stuff" could, nay, should roll into equities.

  • "We remain bullish in our outlook for equities, with a 2007 target of 1,650. At this point in the market cycle, we do not favor any market capitalization segment, and favor "growth" over "value." Given that view, we favor the Information Technology, Industrial, Consumer Discretionary and Financial sectors. We maintain an unfavorable view of Energy and Materials and are neutral on the remaining sectors." Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities.

  • Note the homies as they try to buck the trend and reverse the nosty, sloppy action of the last week. HGX 222-225 is an area of support (50- and 200-day) while initial resistance resides at HGX 230 (former December support).

  • "Supervalu (SVU and, yes, it's spelled "Supervalu") is getting marked down a couple percent after reporting earnings that looked pretty good, from where I'm sitting. I still like the grocers here and I still own Safeway (SWY), regardless of recent downgrades." Television's JeffMacke on today's Buzz.

  • The Following Buzz took place between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM...

    You wanna put what WHERE?!?!

    Note the EEM as they're edging under support (110).

    , which is off a deuce.

    And the TRF, almost 3% to the Boo.

    These are the types of tells that worked in May (remember that?).

    As the only difference between a mistake and a lesson is the ability to learn from it, I wanted to make sure they're on ye radar.

  • The Following Buzz also took place between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM. I've included it in today's Randoms to assure ye faithful that we don't highlight our winners without noting our sinners...

    Snapper John, MD ?

    With the understanding that I'm involved in the group (I added upside calls into the meltage last week), I'll offer that the drillers are trading a lot drier than I expected them to given the Art Carnage in crude.

    It's early--and liquidation chatter continues to make the rounds--but I'm looking for turtles in the sector.

    Not scared turtles, in the
    shrinkage sense. I'm talking about Snappers, in the brazen sense.

    Defined risk on any trading tries please.
Position in drillers, financials

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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