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Random Thoughts


Looks like Harry & Lloyd had another big weekend!

  • Snoop Dodgy Dodge?

  • "I LOVE this indicator (See attached chart courtesy Bloomberg). All smart money value guys have been buying in SIZE (Dodge and Cox, etc.) while all the analysts are saying to sell. This means all we have left are folks who will upgrade it after the fact. In other words, we have a huge potentail source of demand catalysts (upgrades by analysts) while the smart money long-term investors have removed supply from the market. This fits well with Kevin Wassong's feelings for SUNW." Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz (9:44)

  • Consistent with my earlier Buzz on SunMicro (SUNW), I've added an equity component to my position. While my call options (discussed last week) are in the "trading side" of my book, I'm gonna put this slug of stock away for a rainy--or, in this case, Sunny--day. Why did I add the common stock? No gun to head (time premium) as the thesis evolves. Why have I (thus far) held on to the meat of my previous call position? While we didn't hear the news we wanted at CES, we still think a relationship has potential legs and the technicals remain favorable.

  • Mickey En Fuego!

  • I continue to pick up low level chatter that an Iran offensive is a matter of time. Take that with a grain of (edgeless) salt but file it away in the back of your keppe.

  • While JP Morgan is trying to spur the herd, the piggies remain stuck in the mud at BKX 106.

  • Can you blame him? You're only (Vince) Young once!

  • Oh sure, like he went to Harvard! Check out this crimson missive regarding the erosion of the middle class and the trend towards the "haves" and "have nots." It jibes nicely with some of the vibes we shared in Ojai.

  • "Analysts overseas today sliced Netherlands-based TomTom, causing its stock to slide. Reason: Pricing pressure. At some point, bears here believe the same issue should impact Garmin (GRMN), the focus of a new yellow flag in my RealityCheck newsletter last week. To keep a long story short: The proliferation and popularity this past holiday season of consumer portable GPS systems, with lower (not to mention increasingly competitive) price points than Garmin's core aviation/boating business, should slice into the company's forward guidance. While the company may very well report strong fourth quarter results, the key will be on margins and the forecast. Stay tuned." Herb Greenberg on today's Buzz (9:46)

  • Note to Jim: First comes Elvis, then comes golf, bowling, March Madness and boys night out.

  • Can night owls be far behind?

  • Google (GOOG) just passed Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) in market cap. I could swear that I've seen this movie before.

  • Thank you Horse--for what you do and who you are.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    (This is in response to my reaching out to an uber-Minyan who is, quite simply, one of the very best traders I know with a massively impressive track record. I had asked him how he was doing and his response speaks volumes regarding the mood in the Street)

    "I'm doing ok, just hanging low trying to figure out what I wanna be when I grow up. I've gone back and forth with the idea of expanding forever and need to make a decision pretty quick. It's just a lot for a small brain. This business certainly wears on you, as I'm sure you're aware. I go home at night and see my happy family and smiling faces and feel like I've been blessed beyond anybody's dream. Then I wake up and come into this business where everybody is trying to eat each other, everything opposite that we teach our children. Each day means you need to wake up with zero emotion, nobody's opinion but your own and an ability to change your mind when wrong.

    I think since 9/11 the majority of our country has hid behind a false front putting up smiles and pretending everything is ok but deep down most of us realize how over-the-top our entire country has become. There is so much pain and suffering that it wears you down if you think about it too long. But then if you don't think about it, how will it ever change?"

  • Fare ye well into the swell as we ready ourselves for Turnaround Tuesday.


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Position in SUNW, JPM
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