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Spin Cycle


If the bears need to be scared before we roll, consider it done!


What goes up, must come down
Spinning wheel got to go around
Talkin' bout your troubles it's a cryin' sin
Ride a painted pony let the spinning wheel spin

(Blood, Sweat & Tears)

Well, here we are...right near the level we were when Dubya spoke on Tuesday. Jeez Louise, that sure is a heckuva lotta stress to be right back where we started from! The (slimmed down version of) Scotto just waltzed into my office and asked me what I thought going into tomorrow's economic numbers. I told him what I've been telling you--if you're an active trader gaming the event, it's a relatively edgeless situation.

When we discuss the fear of missing, we're usually referencing the performance anxiety among money managers. It's important to note, however, that this emotion applies to the short side as well. I haven't been stopped out (we've yet to take out the highs) but, regardless, the clock on the wall is dictating that I make a decision. Shocker!

I was intent on going home naked but as I watch the semis come in (particularly MU and TXN), my inclination is to stay the course...somewhat. When in doubt, it's prudent to sit it out...but enough of my ducks are lining up (on the short side) that I'd rather trade "in between." As such, I'm going to remove one leg from my bear costume (added around here) and hop into the report with one leg (25% conviction on the short side).

Again, each of us has a unique risk profile so please, make decisions consistent with your own situation. It's a long year and there's gonna be plenty of opportunities to trade 'em. Capital preservation (staying power) will go a long way in determining who's still schnitzeling come December.

Lemme jump so I can post this before the closing bell. I'll see you tomorrow morning, friends.

Have a peaceful night and fare ye well.

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