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The Lunch Crunch


If the banks tank, it's all over but the shouting!


So if you wake up with the sunrise
And all your dreams are still as new
And happiness is what you need so bad
Boo, the answer lies with you

(Led Zeppelin)

Do you remember that scene in Animal House when that prissy sorority chick said "That boy is a P-I-G pig!" Well, if the looks I've gotten from my new colleagues is any indication, I'm right there with ya Bluto! I couldn't cut the steak with that flimsy I took the liberty of using my paws to expedite the process. Wouldn't you know that everybody happened to walk by my office at that exact moment?

The midday lull has softened the indices and I'm weighing my alternatives into the closing bell. While I continue to feel that there's a (downside) pothole out there, the zillion dollar question is one of timing. Tomorrow's payroll numbers are the definition of edgeless and, as such, I'm faced with a difficult question: How can I urge the good readers of this site to practice discipline if I don't lead by example?

The answer is simple. If you find yourself toin cossing, you shouldn't have risk on. As I discussed in yesterday's opening piece, the ability to limit edgeless losses will be an integral aspect of success this year. My (substantial) gut says lower and many of my indicators back it up--but when you're lining up your ducks it's necessary to have a compelling quack count and, well, I'm not sure we're there...yet.

If we take out today's highs, I'm (likely) gonna stop out my posture and defer to the discipline that's gotten me here. You gotta dance with who ya came with, cookie, and discipline should always trump conviction. With that said, we're not getting stopped out YET, bruddah, and there's plenty of trading left in the day. Watch the banks (slipping a bit) and keep half an eye on those bonds. If they start to rally, the bandwagon alligator chasers will likely be shaken out.

Meanwhile, Fokker just poked his head up over his mini-monitors and said "the market ain't acting so well now, eh boss?" Uhh, will somebody please ask the kid to see "mush" in the Minyanville dictionary? There are very few things on this earth that I'm sure of---I must pay taxes, Slaino will always be my friend...and the surest way to end your mojo is to count your chips at the table! Demerit!

I'll be bah-hak

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