The Courage To Choose
By Peter Atwater Jan 08, 2008 8:10 am
All of us will need to return to our vocabulary a simple phrase that I believe has been lost over the past 20 years: "I can’t afford that."
This article was written by Minyan Peter, author of other popular articles such as Still in the Cards.
Having been asked to provide my thoughts regarding 2008, I am going to stray a little bit from my usual Buzz & Banter messages and share what I see as the most important theme for 2008 – making choices.
I believe that in time, historians will define the last twenty years in America as the “Age of Aspiration” where, thanks to unprecedented levels of credit, Americans could become anything they wanted. Where, thanks to 0% down debt and a seemingly robust economy, we could own bigger homes, fancier cars, and more lavish vacations – where our bounty was limited only by the boldness of our wants.
Well, I, for one, believe that our Age of Aspiration is ending. And, with its conclusion, we must, for the first time in almost a generation, begin to reconcile our wants with our means. We must choose what to do without, rather than what more to do with.
But I would suggest that few of us are prepared for this challenge. Why? Because abundance relieves each of us from having to prioritize what is important. When anything is possible, everything is possible. Few of us have really had to choose.
As I look ahead to 2008, though, I believe that each of us, the communities we live in, and the organizations and companies we serve, are going to have to make choices. We are going to have to separate what is most important from least, and act accordingly. Where life was once limitless, it will now be constrained. And, like it or not, all of us will need to return to our vocabulary a simple phrase that I believe has been lost over the past 20 years: “I can’t afford that.”
So as we approach 2008, I wish the Minyanville community the wisdom to prioritize well, the courage to make the hard, and often painful, choices, and, most of all, the strength and conviction to follow through.
Position in DUG.
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Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Reply
2007-12-26 14:49:21
Replacing "And" with "Or," "Both" with "Neither," "Yes" with "No"
I know Minyan Peter is right and, to an extent, I understand his point. Yet, beyond that extent, I really don't understand it. In my circle of family and friends, I know of only one person who has spent the last decade on a spree and accumulated an irresponsible amount of debt. She's the sole "and," "both," "yes!" person. Everyone else says "or," "neither," "no thank you."
Is it possible my friends, family and I are so out-of-touch? (I haven't a clue as to how "most Americans" think or act ... after all, I live inside the D.C. Beltway; how much more out-of-the-mainstream can one get?)
What say ye other Minyans?
Best wishes,
Bengal
Is it possible my friends, family and I are so out-of-touch? (I haven't a clue as to how "most Americans" think or act ... after all, I live inside the D.C. Beltway; how much more out-of-the-mainstream can one get?)
What say ye other Minyans?
Best wishes,
Bengal
2007-12-26 14:53:05
Very timely
Minyan Peter,
I totally agree with you. I think especially in the last four years the availability of cheap credit, has lead to lot of irresponsible behaviour, both from Business leaders and Govt leaders. In many ways, the credit destruction, I feel will lead to more responsible conduct by everyone.
Finally, thanks for introducing me to SKF. I have to tell you this one did wonders to my portfolio performance. Please accept HUGE THANKS FOR SKF and more importantly for insights.
And thanks to Toddo, for bringing you onboard.
Best to both of you and your families for new year.
Thanks
Minyan Radhe
I totally agree with you. I think especially in the last four years the availability of cheap credit, has lead to lot of irresponsible behaviour, both from Business leaders and Govt leaders. In many ways, the credit destruction, I feel will lead to more responsible conduct by everyone.
Finally, thanks for introducing me to SKF. I have to tell you this one did wonders to my portfolio performance. Please accept HUGE THANKS FOR SKF and more importantly for insights.
And thanks to Toddo, for bringing you onboard.
Best to both of you and your families for new year.
Thanks
Minyan Radhe
2007-12-26 17:28:49
Prioritizing
Responding to Bengal's comment above, what works for me is to consider the extent to which choices have been made--rather than a binary yes/no. Through that lens, I 'see' less sacrifice and fewer hard choices made by the broad US populace now versus, say, 2 decades ago. It really is a function of credit expansion and debt, isn't it? Almost by definition, less saving and more debt implies a movement towards 'having it all' now rather than waiting till later.
As I'm writing, I also wonder whether a collective movement towards prioritization isn't a factor that helps define deflation.
Just my2c.
matty
As I'm writing, I also wonder whether a collective movement towards prioritization isn't a factor that helps define deflation.
Just my2c.
matty
2007-12-26 18:02:35
Most Americans
I don't know what Most Americans are doing either, though the data on increasing debt loads, increasing spending, flat real income leads to obvious conclusions about Most.
I also believe I only know 1 outright overspender. But I also realize that most people won't talk about their bad decisions. There are plenty of people I know who don't share small spending decisions with their spouse let alone share real financal standings with friends and neighbors. We all have a tendancy to generalize our own experience, be that positive or negative. My husband and I frequently wonder how our neighbors afford the things they do. Our only conclusion is through debt they never talk about.
When people are spending real money on avatars in online worlds to have the trendiest stuff, while it blows my mind, I have to think it says a little something about Most Americans.
I also believe I only know 1 outright overspender. But I also realize that most people won't talk about their bad decisions. There are plenty of people I know who don't share small spending decisions with their spouse let alone share real financal standings with friends and neighbors. We all have a tendancy to generalize our own experience, be that positive or negative. My husband and I frequently wonder how our neighbors afford the things they do. Our only conclusion is through debt they never talk about.
When people are spending real money on avatars in online worlds to have the trendiest stuff, while it blows my mind, I have to think it says a little something about Most Americans.
2007-12-26 18:41:21
Choices
Hi Peter - first of all let me add my kudos and thanks for your insights in the 'Ville. You have contributed some invaluable stuff. I agree with your take on the coming "prioritization" of our lives, and with much of the above comments. I will also throw in the following, as I am witnessing it more and more often: with forced choices and self-denial, there also seems to be a growing sense of despondency about "life" in general. I hate to wander into too much "psychological" reading, b/c I am the least qualified person to do that, but I can't help sensing that for several acquaintances indiscriminate spending was an "outlet", the act itself seemed to make them feel good, even when the latest purchase was quickly left as forgotten. Perhaps my observations are mere anecdotes and a function of the weird crowd I know, but if they are not, if this dynamic is a more widespread symptom, there may be an additional and stiff psychological headwind facing the already declining consumer spending.
2007-12-26 21:48:03
Replacing "And" with "Or," "Both" with "Neither," "Yes" with "No"
To reply to Bengal, I think that often we as Americans surround ourselves with people who are like minded. So with that said, if you are a fiscally conservative and responsible individual, you probably have developed a circle of friends and acquaintances who think very much like you do.
But I do believe that if not a majority, then at least a large number of "young professionals" and other stereotypes have enjoyed the fruit of future labor by taking advantage of easy credit and inflated real estate prices. I can't imagine that we won't feel a significant amount of economic pain as these excesses are wrung out of the system.
Well said MP!
But I do believe that if not a majority, then at least a large number of "young professionals" and other stereotypes have enjoyed the fruit of future labor by taking advantage of easy credit and inflated real estate prices. I can't imagine that we won't feel a significant amount of economic pain as these excesses are wrung out of the system.
Well said MP!
2007-12-26 23:17:32
Courage to Choose What I Am Not
Trading for a living has been my passion and, unfortunately, unrealistic dream for the past 11 years. I now find myself middle aged, with huge gaps of self-employed time on my resume, struggling to re-train and re-tool myself to get a job that can pay my bills. I am currently working as a food service worker at Whole Foods in La Jolla, CA for $11 an hour. I enter a 10 month paralegal program next month, and hope to convince a law firm in downtown San Diego to give me a shot at being a clerk whilst getting my paralegal certification. In many ways, by getting chewed up and spit out by the market, I have been forced to change and adapt, radically, to my new circumstances. I have no outstanding debt, save my mortgage, and sufficient savings to live on for another 12 months. Yet I am deeply motivated by my limitations to re-create myself, and I am on my way. I cant afford NOT to do that.
2007-12-27 05:52:17
Uncanny & on Target ..
Dear Minyan Peter,
Your observations are uncannily right. My respect for the Minyan community continues to grow and grow. It is based on what I see and read here.
You captured and articulated -- in simple words -- what I think millions of people are thinking about doing. Evidence is retail sales at places like Target etc.
Our Christmas was subdued by way of shopping and more exuberant by way of sharing our time with each other.
It is a choice we made this year. Thankyou for your article.
-sanjiv
Your observations are uncannily right. My respect for the Minyan community continues to grow and grow. It is based on what I see and read here.
You captured and articulated -- in simple words -- what I think millions of people are thinking about doing. Evidence is retail sales at places like Target etc.
Our Christmas was subdued by way of shopping and more exuberant by way of sharing our time with each other.
It is a choice we made this year. Thankyou for your article.
-sanjiv
2007-12-27 18:09:26
Who is driving that agenda?
Think about it. Who is setting that agenda? What arrives in your mail weekly? Stop and really pay attention to who media marketing is targeting. When is the last time our leaders have advanced the asset class of savings. Just who or what would want us to continue to spend no matter the debt incurred? Do you feel as if your forced to take on risk or guilty if you do not keep the consumption dance going? Diminishing fixed income and dividend payouts, why?
Is anybody reinforcing parents trying to teach fiscal responsibility to their children? Sorry, go out and spend so the terrorists don't win is just not sound logic. I'm not buying in.
-D. Skins
Is anybody reinforcing parents trying to teach fiscal responsibility to their children? Sorry, go out and spend so the terrorists don't win is just not sound logic. I'm not buying in.
-D. Skins
2007-12-30 08:21:18
Minyan Peter on Choices
Voluntarily doing any thing that restricts are ability to enjoy, is not in our nature. Most cases of social prudence in history have come from forced to, not want to events.
2009-11-24 00:24:01
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