Just Win, Baby!
If those internals don't turn, I'm soup!
Fred Biletnikoff, Cliff Branch, Lester Hayes and the rest of the all-time great Raaaidaz spun by Minyanville (on their way to Oakland) to get a early afternoon read on the tape. Wasabi Silver and Black legends---welcome to my house. I know you guys have bigger fish (and Jet's) to fry so I'll keep this short and to the point. I want to make sure you're well rested for Raider Max and our tailgate at the Hole on Sunday!
The NDX has (thus far) settled at 1050 which, as we discussed, is the first support zone. If this recent move was indeed a breakout, this "retest" at the former ceiling (present floor) is textbook. While I see what the bulls are pointing to, a few things irk me about that scenario. We've covered a handful of them this morning (TRIN, 10-day put/call, investor intelligence/VIX, ect), but I'd also like to add that the stochastic "pretzel twist" buy signals (created by December's Razor Burn) has worked itself off. Further, and I'll keep saying it as long as it's there, the (negative) head and shoulder patterns are still very much in play.
This, of course, doesn't mean we can't rally--but if we're looking to identify compelling risk/reward scenarios, this gives me ample reason to pause. Sure, it's easy to get cautious NOW but, as always, the hardest fades are the best fades. In other words, when everybody and their sister was screaming at you to buy them after the President's speech yesterday, it was time to sell the "hope."
Tapewise, it's same 'ol, same 'ol as the sector themes, macro crosscurrents and internal gauges continue to continue. Cisco still acts well but, hey, Oracle acted great yesterday and it's down 4% today. Why do I point that out? Because if you bought Orca yesterday because it acted well, you've lost your catalyst. Again--identifying a time horizon and defining your risk profile will serve you in good stead as we weigh these daily dilemmas.
I've got another meeting so let me toss that other hat on and do my thing. Before I go, I must thank the readers for the fantastic response we've received to date . Our community is growing by leaps and bounds and, truth be told, it's a humbling experience. And to think--the University (and all our fantastic professors) hasn't even launched yet! Wait till you see some of the people who will be teaching classes over there...it's pretty crazy. Oh yeah, in case you forgot--the University is free, baby! The only thing we'll (humbly) ask is that you to help us spread the word. Thanks!
I hope this finds you well
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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