By Todd Harrison Jan 08, 2003 8:58 am
We're seeing some steady selling, Toddo...what gives?
There's nothing like a 5% lift to get the juices flowing early and, consistent with my pensive nature, I've been digesting a fair amount of thoughts lately. The beauty of Minyanville is that it provides a forum of discussion and, as we attempt to find our way, free thinking sometimes helps the process. You may not agree with some of the things I write but, as I've often said, seeing all "sides" of a trade is helpful. You always want to know what the guy on the other end of the phone is thinking.
As I train Fokker to be my eyes and ears, I'm having him call my best contacts and ask what they're "seeing." For instance, are there any themes? What's the nature of the buyers (sellers)? Does the room get louder during rallies or selloffs? Are there any "dumb" guys with huge tickets or "sharp" guys with small tickets? All the while, I want one of his eyes focused on the newswire, one of his eyes scanning the industry groups, one of his eyes on the phone lights and another eye on that pesky fax machine (still working).
Today's news includes a couple of pukes of JPM, a downgrade of SLR, and upgrade of SAP and SANM, a handful of number bumps in CCU (good presentation), and a number cut in DIS. Meanwhile, Europe continues to come under pressure and I've had Greg RN to use his free time to monitor DAX 3000 (almost there). The conferences continues and, from what I can gather, the fundies are "there" although December may have been a smidgeon better than thought. Nothing crazy, mind you, but it becomes a numbers game versus expectations.
I hopped into work today with one leg in my metaphorical bear costume (25% conviction on the short side) and want to watch the early action. The internals never confirmed (the upside) yesterday and will be a key tell today. Obviously, the financials and BKX 800 remains a focus as does NDX 1050 (past resistance, first support). The stochastics haven't confirmed the sell side but with the trin over 1 four days in a row (thanks Snoop), the ten day put/call flashing red and the sentiment gauges problematic (I.I and VIX), I'm keeping my right hand up.
I've got to run into this meeting before Schotts smacks me so lemme come back to you after the opening. Good luck today, cookmo, and may the schwartz be with you.
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