Big Hair and a Bear Scare
They don't go down well!
Shot through the heart and you're to blame
You give love a bad name
I play my part and you play your game
You give love a bad name
The fun and games continue as Hump Day hurdles its apex and the critters are looking for clues. "Give us your opinion, Toddo," they asked, "it's not about advice (it never is in Minyanville) but we'd sure like to know what you're thinking. And please, leave the big picture blues aside for the moment--we know how you feel about that stuff." Nuff said.
I think we're edging through the short-term panic phase and it's always hard to game that type of exhaustion. The most obvious levels to monitor are S&P 1130 and 1150--which is a 50% retracement of the entire bear scare. That's an intuitive place to fail but, as we know, levels become convoluted when everyone is watching the same chart. How we get there will be as important as the level itself (a parabolic move is entirely more vulnerable than a grindy climb).
If the Burned Razor holds (and it has thus far, despite my best efforts to ignore it), the Minx is due for a pretty meaty gut check. How you approach it is a function of style and an individual risk appetite. I told Hoofy that tightening stops is prolly warranted as that would allow him to participate if the panic gets more manic. I also told him that as long as Intel (INTC:NASD) jumps with jig, the gig won't zig into something big.
The "can't get 'em down" chorus is getting a bit louder and I just saw some macro gorillas take SPYs in size. As we take out the daily highs (and the breadth slowly improves), towels are getting tossed. Be careful, Minyans, as emotional markets tend to exacerbate the tail end of trends. That's the whole point of the "denial-migration-panic" thang.
There's a LOT of rumors floating around--and I generally don't like to comment on those--but they're extra loud today. The latest is that a positive preannouncement is looming from a big cap networker. I'm not involved and have no edge--but the very fact that the buzz is increasing is likely a sign that we're edging closer to the exhaustion.
Gonna hop and post. Hope you're managing the Minx and leaving the emotions to the udder guy.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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