Didn't I tell you
What I believe
Did somebody say that
A love like that won't last
Stop the presses! First, Page Six reported that Daisy and Boo were nuzzling in the back booth of the Birdland. Then, out of nowhere, Herb Greenberg called to say that he saw "what looked like" Daisy and Boo sneaking into the back door of the W Hotel in San Diego! While I've never been a big fan of cross-breeding, the implications of this alleged union delve much deeper. If there is truth to this chatter, Hoofy's confidence will implode and that'll send ripples through the financial markets. I summoned the smitten critters to my office in an attempt to get to the bottom of the story. Here's what they had to say:
Toddo: Alright guys, we need to talk. Far be it from me to pass judgment on other relationships but we're talking about trust here. The Buzz on the Street is that you guys have paired up and before Hoofy cries over spilled milk, I need to know if it's true.
Boo: Trust? You're going to talk to me about trust? How about the fact that you put two arms in your BULL costume this morning (50% conviction on the long side) despite being a big picture bear?
Toddo: Is that what this is about? I thought I explained myself on the Buzz (in real-time) but I'll tell ya again. The NYSE breadth has acted firm for the first time this year and that's been the single best tell. Further, Citigroup (C:NYSE) acts dry again and is ticklin' a new reaction high above $49. Factor in the defined risk (NDX 1560 is double support) and the relative shake-out this week and I thought it was a worthy try.
Daisy: (looking mighty fine) What about the payroll numbers tomorrow? Are you going to go home wearing the costume?
Toddo: Function of price, I think, but my inclination is to pair either way in front of a potentially binary event. Besides, there is plenty of risk to the tape--my stochastics are pointing south, sentiment remains lopsided (despite the spillage) and vols are teenage wastelands. This is a pure trade and I'm simply trying to make a little hay when the sun shines. Besides, I've got tight stops on my exposure and won't let it morph into a reactive investment.
Boo: Any feel on the numbers tomorrow?
Toddo: I'm hearing that the Liscio Report (which is very good) is looking for a headline payroll number of 180,000 with risk to the upside (not confirmed). If that proves true, it could spur the rally that most were looking for early this week. With that said, I strongly suggest you read the Iron Horse as he offered his usual lucid insight this morning.
Daisy: What else are you looking at?
Toddo: The action in the nets stands out (eBay (EBAY:NASD) as does the jig in Citi (C:NYSE). S's over N's? You betcha...so if you're bullish, you may wanna focus on the old school (S&P 1193 is potentially problematic) while bears may look to the four-letter freaks. Just a thought...
As we were chatting, Snoop Tony Dwyer walked into my office with a pained expression on his face.
Tony: Daisy, say it ain't so! You always said that I was next in line if anything happened to Hoofy? I am, after all, bullish on the margin. As I said this morning, if I had a dollar to invest, I would put 30 cents to work and wait for oversold stochastics to nibble and pick further.
Daisy: RELAX Tony and chill Toddo. I'm not the cheating kind and will tell you--and everyone else--that the rumors of a dairy dalliance are udderly wrong. Boo isn't my type (I've never liked hairy backs) and I wouldn't do that to Hoofy. All we have is our name and our word, right? (Turns to Tony.) Perhaps a cold shower would set you straight?
With that, I had to end our chat as the flicks began ticking quicker and the sushi started to smell a bit funky. Besides, as Bob Segar so eloquently put it, seeing old friends is good for the soul. They don't make 'em any better than Tony so, on that note, I'm gonna shift my attention to my bespectacled buddy.
I'll be back in a bit, Minyans....
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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