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Morning Randoms


I didn't know anyone was watching!


  • When will the gravy train leave a stain?

  • His name is Bernie and he dances on the sand...

  • There is low level chatter that Daisy and Boo were seen canoodling in the back booth of the Birdland. I typically don't share rumors but this could have profound implications to the critter dynamic.

  • The NDX closed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since early September as the techs burped up half of last year's gains in three short sessions. NDX 1560 represents the uptrend line from the August lows AND the January '04 highs. If Snapper is gonna get his groove back, he'll likely pitch tent near into that zone.

  • Cycles and you.

  • "Even if our efforts of attention seem for years to be producing no result, one day a light that is in exact proportion to them will flood the room." - Simone Weil

  • "Is it a commentary of sorts on the state of affairs in the world when a tsunami that wipes out almost 200,000 lives and devastates countless livelihoods hasn't yet reached $5 billion in total aid ($4 billion currently), but an organization that cheated investors and lied about $9 billion of losses can raise $5 billion within days without any semblance of audited financial statements using the help of an investment bank that pocketed a cool 75 million bones for their services? Isn't something amiss with those priorities?" Minyan JB

  • Please note that the S&P and NDX futes got tagged after the cash close last night and this morning's jig is recapturing some of the "fair value."

  • Branded Geese and a coupla beans.

  • Eagles, underdogs and the Vet.

  • After a one day pause, the dollar is grabbin' some greenback as we edge into the Thursday fray. The DXY is now through the 50-day moving average and the December highs. The next tangible resistance is the 200-day which is 5% higher at DXY 87.33.

  • Is the dollar rallying because perception suddenly shifted to higher rates (the market is pricing in three 25 bip hikes)? Perhaps, but I'm not sure we learned anything new or different in the FOMC minutes. More likely, and this is just my two cents, the first week of the new year saw monolithic shifts in asset class allocation. Why else would "everything" turn on the '05 dime?

  • Yes Collins, you can take tomorrow off.

  • Bold gold.

  • Has anyone actually made the "down big" call for '05?

  • Is this week's freak a simple reversion or has the minxy dynamic shifted? I'm not entirely certain as there are competing crosscurrents and crowded agendas. I will offer that the internals need to shore up before Hoofy has a shot at redemption. They've been the single best intraday read and should remain a focus for the active set.

  • Wasabi Bonds!

  • How was YOUR last five days?

  • I say we ask Marsellus Wallace to have his homies get medieval on her arse.

  • Insult to injury.

  • I've spoken to a few of my trading brethren and there is already blood on the streets this year. It seems as if some folks pressed the "easy upside" inflow trade and bought dips rather than defined risk. There are three types of trades--for the day, for a catalyst or as part of a thesis. As soon as we start rationalizing risk and justifying exposure, it's time to seriously reassess our edge.

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