If these first few sessions are any indication, we're gonna have some movement this year!
Now let me welcome everybody to the wild wild west
A state that's untouchable like Elliot Ness
The track hits ya eardrum like a slug to ya chest
Pack a vest for my Raiders in the city of flex
Alright, you wanna know what did it? It wasn't the N.Y fans who told me not to waste my time because the Jet's were CLEARLY a lay-up. It wasn't the Oakland fans who told me the Raiders needed every ounce of help they could get. It was the savvy souls who reminded me that tomorrow is promised to nobody and we should always live for the day. Prepare yourself Oakland and get ready Raider Max--the critters are saddling up and heading to the Hole for Sunday's game!
Before we face paint and prepare to battle the Mets, er, Jet's, we've got a lot of trading left to do. The internals never blinked today and that--along with the BKX-- are the feathers in the bull's cap. As we discussed this morning, market's that are strong all day typically end that way. There IS a chance that this is alligator related (asset allocation) and the bid could dissipate at 3pm (when the bonds close)--but as it stands, the path of least resistance seems higher.
Either way, and in the vein of taking our journey one step at a time, watch BKX 800 and SOX 330 as we find our way. The NDX, which is solidly through 1050, has a bit further to go to alleviate the potential head and shoulders (I would think the techs would have to close above NDX 1070 to achieve that). I'm experiencing a real sense of deja vu (rewind exactly one year) but, as I feel last year's structural environment was unique, I'm not going to draw that comparison.
Casting an eye forward, the Morgan Stanley Tech conference continues tomorrow and CSCO, VRTS, SUNW, AMZN and ERTS (among others) will state their case. The Solly Media conference also begins with CCU, YHOO, SSP and KRI chatting it up (among others). Finally, KLAC, MU, ADI (et al) will be holding court at Needham, Larry Ellison (ORCL) and Steve Jobs (AAPL) will be speaking and Beeks will be dropping off the Factory orders (exp.-7%) . As always, if I hear anything of value, you'll be the first to know.
I'm admittedly juggling a lotta balls today as I settle into the new digs so please bear with me as we get acclimated. I mean, Fokker doesn't even have a phone yet! Still, you'll never find me making excuses or talking out of both sides of my mouth. Triple resistance was worth a shot on the opening spike (on the short side) and I'll make that bet every day and twice on Sunday. Hoofy, however, seems to have other ideas and is doing his best to start '03 on a good...hoof. It's worth a look at 3pm when the bonds close but tread lightly while carrying that big stick.
I've got a midtown mindmeld on the bell but I'll try to get one more schnitzel to you before I scoot. It's a long week...and a long year...so keep your head in the game. There is overnight risks on the geopolitical and earnings front, so understand that as you craft your risk profile going home.
Good luck, Mon Frere.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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