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Random Thoughts

By

Have a mindful weekend away from the flickering fray.

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  • Man hands, it's ugly out there--from breadth (5:1 negative) to the semis (former leaders, down a deuce) to the homies to commodities (gold -$20). I haven't seen a beating like this since I put a banana down my pants and turned the monkey loose!

  • Through my lens, the most important 'valve' continues to be the dollar. We've been discussing the "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" dynamic for a long time but still, outside of the 'Ville, it hasn't gotten much press. It's admittedly myopic but it's been right as rain. The dollar goes up, asset classes go pfffft! The dollar goes down (as a function of the liquidity spigot), asset classes reflate.

  • We're seeing it manifest in many ways. The emerging markets--which are very sensitive to liquidity flows--are a particularly apt tell as Brazil is now off 3% and the TRF is still off 8% (that makes 20% since last Tuesday, boys and girls).

  • To be completely frank (Hi, I'm Frank!), it's beyond me how the big cap banks and brokers aren't listening to more chin music. Until they break, in my opinion, the broader market will only bend.

  • I wonder what Bender would do?

  • Welcome to Dumpsville, population YOU!

  • Did ya'll get a good look at Minyanville's new personal finance editor, Dan Kadlec?

  • The metals? Gold is off a cool $20 as the XAU dribbles a deuce. We flagged XAU 140 way back when and, with that well overhead, crying eyes turn to watch XAU 130 (the November low) as the next level of lore.

  • I'll betcha he moo's out of both sides of his mouth!

  • Past resistance is future support, right? In that vein, watch DRG 350 as newfound support for those hugging drugs.

  • The drillers are trying to broken clock it (right twice a day) but the action is anemic given the recent smack down. We heard yesterday that the big dog (Fido, or Fidelity) was punting these names and I, for one, would like to buy that clean-up.

  • Note to self: do not schedule morning melds on the heels of Charlie's ol' Bones.

  • Professor Bennet "Blue Steel" Sedacca astutely noted the 40 year bear flag in the greenback on this morning's Buzz. As he said, "Imagine if we take out the 78-80 area in the DXY. You have 40 years of losers and no support. This is one of the most important data points for late 2007 and beyond." I concur, sir.

  • Gimme that Greenback! The DXY (dollar index) is above the aforementioned 84.25 level (December highs) but is quickly approaching right shoulder resistance after the autumn dandruff. IF the dollar takes a breather, it could provide the same for those luggin' asset class exposure.

  • My kitty cat craves chicken, my kitty cat craves milk…

  • What am I doing? I patiently picked into the driller spillage the last coupla days (defined risk upside calls) and, as it stands, my metal faves are actually up (I would add more on a downside disconnect). My short side exposure (financials, via JPM, HRB, etc) is helping me keep a balanced book and similar mindset. And so it goes…

  • It's Friday and we've gotta LOT of football in front of us. Let's be smart into our two day requisite respite so we can focus on the important stuff when thy bell tolls in a few short hours.

  • Fare ye well, Minyans, and have a mindful weekend away from the flickering fray.


R.P.

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Position in drillers, metals, financials, jpm, hrb
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