Evening Earnings and Data - MV News - 4:33 PM
- Take Two (TTWO) reported prelim Q4 EPS of $0.27 vs $0.33 cons on revs of $308.0 mln vs $291.0 mln cons.
The company lowered Q1 revs guidance to $230-250 mln from $300-350 mln prior and $322.7 mln, reflecting weakness in video game sales in North America and Europe. TTWO guided EPS to a net loss vs $0.04-0.10 prior.
- Starbucks (SBUX) reported Dec comps +7% vs +8% exp. Net revs were +22% y/y to $791 mln.
Inhale, Exhale - Todd Harrison - 4:09 PM
This one will go to the video tape or, in this case, tomorrow's orange crop report. Consistent with what we've been Buzzin' all day, the motion in select sectors (semis, metals, energy) and situations trumped the overall movement. Boring? Worry not, this too shall pass (and soon, me thinks).
Run-DMC once sang "money is the key to end all your woes" but, as much as I dig old school rap, I respectfully dissent. With the S's thisclose to four year highs, the angst and acrimony is redlining across the Street. I've wondered if it's "just me" but we've got Minyans in 60 countries and they assure me that it's not.
I don't think there's a panacea (if anyone knows of one, please share the wealth) but my sense is that balance, family, friendship, pets, music, sunsets and smiles will help ease the pain. Easier said than done most of the time, I know, but we've got two choices.
And the second one is simply unacceptable.
Have a good night, Minyans, I'll see you in the ayem.
More disclosure about profit taking... - Bennet Sedacca - 3:51 PM
Back in December, we mentioned here that we thought MIN (MFS Intermediate Income Trust) was a cheap holiday gift. Well since then, it has rallied 2-3% and paid a .5% dividend. Not bad for less than a month.
Well, it is getting the year-end bounce and we are paring our decision; again, in line with the fact that negative seasonality lies ahead for bonds. We are not long-term bears on bonds, but yields this compressed, with those sorts of returns in a month, with low risk, we will take any day of the week. We think the upward max target is the 6.35-6.38 area.
Position in MIN
Tax on the economy - Vitaliy Katsenelson - 3:45 PM
Not sure about the risk-aversion argument as it extends to stocks, but fighting terrorism is certainly a tax on the economy. I paid a visit to NYC in September 2005 and observed that cost first hand.
For New Yorkers it has become second nature, but for this Denver resident it came with a bit of a shock. I had to make sure to be at least ten minutes early to every appointment that took place in an office building. New Yorkers know the drill: valid form of ID, a phone call to the person you have an appointment with, name tag. All this is a tax on time and money.
It is very hard to measure the bulk of the cost as a lot of it is imputed in lost productivity. Yes, two hours spent in security check, boarding a plane is two hours wasted in a non-productive activity.
Kinda Like Vince Young giving ya snaps on your QB skills - MV Mailbag - 3:37 PM
"Excellent column. I wish I got a similarly cogent piece out of falling asleep prematurely - in my case when my New Year's Eve consisted of dozing off in 2005 and waking up with the new year already six hours old.
The classic screw-up of TiVO's block scheduling amusingly screwed lots of puffed-up Hollywood types. A few years ago when TiVO was just becoming a must-have among film-industry folks, the trendy thing to do was to go out to a nice dinner while TiVO-ing the Oscars (which take place at an unfashionably early hour in LA), then to have a party later in which everyone watches the awards show on a delay.
Of course, the TiVO window for the broadcast was too short and quit before Best Picture was announced. Technological justice for the mortal sins of pride and avarice."
Minyan Michael Santoli
Flashback! - Bill Meehan - 2:15 PM
This day in market history...
Closing levels this day 2 years ago
S&P 500: 1122.22
This day in Minyanville history...
In '04, Prof. Roney informed us that Jan '05 was looking like Jan '00
In other news...
In 1961, Mr. Ed premiered while in 1970, All My Children debuted. I'll take a talking horse over Susan Lucci on my TV any day.
Mini-Minyan Mailbag - Kevin Depew - 2:05 PM
Was that spike to $54.95 a misprint or did Fannie Mae (FNM) truly trade to that level? Also, your comments on $53.5 on the PNF chart is based on closing prices, correct?
Actually, a lot of shares moved around 1 p.m. today near that level, so no misprint. A guy with more than 45 years experience on Wall Street (my father-in-law) told me once to "always draw your trendlines with crayons, not in fine-point ink." That advice has served me well. Also as the chart I posted showed, $53.50 was "a" level, but not "the" level. Here is a long-term chart of FNM to illustrate what I mean.
John Succo probably put it best today: "When short a stock you must size the position to last on days like this for the short squeezes can be brutal."
Position in FNM
Effective Pain Relief - David Miller - 1:32 PM
Another day another biotech deal, this time between Bayer (BAY) and Nuvelo (NUVO). Nuvelo gets $50M cash, $335M in potential milestones, and 40% of development costs covered while Bayer gets ex-US rights. Nuvelo is up 39%, which likely makes it an uncomfortable day for those holding the 2M shares (5.2% of float) of Nuvelo that are short.
In more general terms, biotech (NBI) is doing well today. The IBB isn't up much, but breadth is strong at 104 up, 4 flat, and 52 down. The NBI near the 2005 high of 813 (815 intraday) and the index is not currently overbought -- which is the stochastic condition where the index recently does its biggest gains.
Mini-Minyan Mailbag - John Succo - 10:41 AM
Prof. Succo -
Do you have any idea what's pushing up Fannie Mae (FNM) over five percent (so far) today? The report in today's Wall Street Journal about a few weeks delay in release of the investigative report didn't read like "good news" to me, and I don't see anything else. The company still hasn't produced financial statements and likely won't do so for a while further. Someone has much more faith in this "black box" than I do.
There is a news report that investigators have not found anything new about accounting errors. This is causing a short squeeze in the stock as the impetus for a quick fall seems to have gone away.
This only means that the already terrible accounting practices of the company won't get more terrible. It changes nothing about the fact that their business model is deteriorating.
position in fnm
DeVibe from DeScribe - MV Respect - 10:40 AM
"There was respectable follow-through from breadth and volume on Wednesday as the market nears prior resistance levels. The bulls are in short-term control, but their numbers remain elevated. Long-term put call data is suggestive of an optimistic environment.
Breakouts continue to act well, and going after oversold names here doesn't make much sense to us given the momentum. We are still fans of the trend but less enthused regarding conditional elements. Technology and Healthcare continue to contain the biggest bases, and some are actually showing upside momentum."
Lehman Technician Jeff DeGraaf
Say What? - Kevin Depew - 8:31 AM
A look at commentary, opinion and analysis from around the world:
Bill Gross opens up 2006 discussing the "gift that should keep on giving": bond yields have peaked.
Remember the eight-track tape? I especially loved the mid-song track change fade out and the inability to rewind. Thanks to the iPod, looks like the "modern" home stereo system will soon join the eight-track in the landfill of appliances formerly necessary for coolness.
Here Robert Murphy attempts to deconstruct what he calls the fallacies used to support Elliott's (and others') arguments against free trade.
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