By Todd Harrison Jan 05, 2006 2:33 pm
I'll see you at Breakfast with Beeks!
- "I knew it was all about our heart, pride, keeping our focus and not getting frustrated." -- Vince Young, after gaining 467 all-purpose yards and leading Texas to the National Championship.
- I can't shake the feeling that a big move is around the corner for equities. Perhaps that's not a shocker given the technical juncture, commodity volatility or (what I perceive to be) the heightened state of tension, but my antennae is vibin' hard. I'm not making a massive directional bet, mind you, but I'm long more volatility (gamma) than I've been in quite a while. I touched on some of my "situations" this morning (in the vein of sharing a real-time process) but wanted to express this latest "feel."
- If you haven't read President Fish, you're missing some of the best media insight on the Street.
- I was wondering how Macke managed to be so balanced all the time!
- Aunt Fannie (FNM) is up 8% and is dancing around its 200-day. I have a long history with this stock and experienced both the thrill of victory and the agony of worthless puts. I'm not currently involved but it's certainly on my radar. And, while we strive to make hay when the sun shines (read: sure, I'd love to catch the upside), I have no (zero, nada, zilch) desire to have this anywhere near my portfolio. The risk, in my view, doesn't validate the potential reward.
- Mini-Minyan Mailbag
"As I was reading Toddo's Buzz vibe that he senses a large move in equities approaching, the fellow on television suggested that QQQQ, SMH and the IYW are all 'ways to get exposure to the tech rally.'
It just so happens that all three are getting traditional DeMark TD Sequential sell signals today. That doesn't mean DeMark can't be wrong, of course, but we've backtested his results for the last ten years and they're pretty amazing.
Keep up the good work in the 'Ville!
- Why do we discuss the evolving and everpresent acrimony on the 'Ville? Because it will likely (eventually) manifest via the price action. Think about it, if tension is this high with the tape at four year highs....
- Perhaps Grandpa Neil Glassman can let us know how it ends?
- "There was respectable follow-through from breadth and volume on Wednesday as the market nears prior resistance levels. The bulls are in short-term control, but their numbers remain elevated. Long-term put call data is suggestive of an optimistic environment. Breakouts continue to act well, and going after oversold names here doesn't make much sense to us given the momentum. We are still fans of the trend but less enthused regarding conditional elements. Technology and Healthcare continue to contain the biggest bases, and some are actually showing upside momentum." Lehman Technician Jeff DeGraaf
- S&P 1275. Tommy can you hear me? Tommy? Tommy?
- Aeropostale (ARO) is Phillin' some pockets today. Noice.
- I wonder if the $5 nagging fee is adjusted for inflation?
- While we saw size risk reversals (buying calls, selling puts) yesterday morning (pushing the tape higher), a meaty S&P put buyer emerged in the afternoon and accumulated 25,000 Jan 1250 puts (creating 5.5mm SPY for sale) as a hedge against his (her) book. Not a shocker given the low level of volatility but somewhat surprising that they slapped it on the first week of the year.
- Street "chatter" continues to pick up in the pharma space. I'm still hangin' with Hoofs in names like Pfizer (PFE) but, as discussed at the time, pared a bunch on the initial pop above $25. Shame on me for not nibblin' some back.
- Keep an eye on SunMicro (SUNW) please. President Fish mentioned it in his weekly column and officially put in on my radar.
- Is there a lesson in the Nat Gas move (-40% since mid-December)? Yes, it's called risk management. That kind of volatility does exist in equities, it's just been dormant long enough for people to entirely discount it. That, in a nutshell, is the disconnect between perception and reality that keeps me up at night.
- I'll be pennin' some morning vibes tomorrow before heading to Dr. J's optionfest (where we'll be unveiling the first public look at the new MV digs). While I was gonna try to tack on an MiM3 site visit while in the mountains, the TMM thing (too many meetings) will have me back in the 'Ville Monday. I know, I can hear the world's smallest violins playing across the street.
- Fare ye well into the bell and please, Minyans, remember to breathe.
position in pfe, sunw
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