Getting our Phil
By Todd Harrison Jan 05, 2004 2:12 pm
"I was in the Virgin Islands once. I met a girl. We ate lobster and drank pina coladas. At sunset we made love like sea otters. THAT was a pretty good day. Why couldn't I get that day over and over and over...?"
--Phil Connors, Groundhog Day
BING! Somebody call Ned Ryerson 'cause groundhogs are running rampant in Minyanville! Can't you just picture Boo, surrounded once more, feverishly fighting off the little buck-toothed critters? As the rodent rally adds to her tally, the obvious question is begged: when will the market equilibrium shift and motivate the supply to give it a try?
As it stands, the group hug continues to shrug and carry forth last year's theme. The psychological by-product of a sharp rally is to toss concerns into the "pay no mind" bin and, as such, our previously trusty guides have no place to hide. If chicken little was a bear (and fuzzy wuzzy had no hair), he would prolly start chatting up SARS season or a greenback reason (for a decline). None of that stuff will matter--until it does--and once it does, these levels will be in the rear view mirror.
Other than tomorrow's factory orders (exp. -1.5%), the Needham growth conference and a spate of earnings, the "known" catalyst front is fairly quiet. We are edging through preannouncement season and while virtually nobody expects many misses, that may be reason enough to mention it. The hallmark of this rally has been its ability to "rotationally correct" (intramarket). Until that characteristic dissipates, we must respect (but not defer to) the price action.
I'm unsure what "the" eventual catalyst for a downdraft will be although the macro backdrop is the most intriguing. The caveat is that it's been intriguing for months now and it hasn't made a dime of difference. Will the coming chill of the winter thrill create an oil (or gas) shock? I couldn't tell ya but one thing is for certain--everyone is seemingly secure in the fact that they'll see "it" coming. Perhaps they will but, as it stands, equities are priced for perceived perfection and there's precious little margin for error.
Time will tell, I suppose, and it'll make for a most interesting journey. I've been juggling (sans Fokker) so lemme hop and mop the slop. While the dizzying heights offer pause for cause, it's worth remembering that stocks (markets) that are strong (weak) all session tend to end that way. The breadth is stealth and the semis are wealth---so if you're gonna put on your faux paws, please be tight.
Good luck into the close.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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