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Random Thoughts




  • Conventional wisdom seems to be that '04 will be somewhat range bound (+/- 10%) and not many people are looking for a vicious move (either way). I continue to believe that the conditional elements are in place for a nasty melt (at a point). The bull case, as correctly pointed out by Professor Reynolds all of last year, is that the mountain of debt has been "rolled" out and, as such, the Minx has bought herself some time.

  • The S&P has been up six weeks in a row. Don't be shocked when that streak comes to an end.

  • My "must reads" each week? Michael Santoli (Barron's), Gretchen Morgenson (NY Times), Fleck and John Roque (Natexis Bleichroeder).

  • On the Chinese Zodiac 2004 is the year of the Fokker

  • The homies have head faked to the downside a number of times but most of these charts sure look like double tops (negative).

  • February paper (options) will capture the lion's share of the earnings period.

  • One more game: LSU vs. USC. Just do it!

  • Flow's Diner: A customer bought 5000 S&P March 1005 puts (around 11:20am).

  • Curb Your Enthusiasm. A great show and apt theme for the Minx.

  • Sometimes you have to open up wounds for them to heal.

  • The percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average is 92.6% (highest in almost ten years).

  • NDX 1465 is first support.

  • My two favorite football teams: the Oakland Raiders and anyone playing the Broncos.

  • The dollar/gold action will be seen, in hindsight, as a major warning signal.

  • It's hard to root against Brett Favre right now.

  • Brokerage stocks are startin' to roll a bit.

  • Do you see the volume in Sirius (SIRI:NASD) today?

  • Thanks again for your patience as the Minyan professors rotate time away.

  • I hear Daisy also got her bell rung for New Year's. It was indeed a bang up year for Hoofs.

  • Print this out and read it when you can focus.

  • The only way to know that we take things for granted is for them to be taken away.

  • Breadth, despite the bear claws, remains 2:1 positive.

  • Neil Young is coming back to NYC in March.

  • I don't trust anybody that doesn't like animals.

  • A cocky Elmer. Now I've seen it all. Stamp a ticket.

  • Europe holding onto marginal gains.

  • I thought the Snoop/Nokia rap was well done. A bit shameless, but it shnizzled nonetheless.

  • May the best days of '03 be the worst days of '04.

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