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Random Thoughts




  • Conventional wisdom seems to be that '04 will be somewhat range bound (+/- 10%) and not many people are looking for a vicious move (either way). I continue to believe that the conditional elements are in place for a nasty melt (at a point). The bull case, as correctly pointed out by Professor Reynolds all of last year, is that the mountain of debt has been "rolled" out and, as such, the Minx has bought herself some time.

  • The S&P has been up six weeks in a row. Don't be shocked when that streak comes to an end.

  • My "must reads" each week? Michael Santoli (Barron's), Gretchen Morgenson (NY Times), Fleck and John Roque (Natexis Bleichroeder).

  • On the Chinese Zodiac 2004 is the year of the Fokker

  • The homies have head faked to the downside a number of times but most of these charts sure look like double tops (negative).

  • February paper (options) will capture the lion's share of the earnings period.

  • One more game: LSU vs. USC. Just do it!

  • Flow's Diner: A customer bought 5000 S&P March 1005 puts (around 11:20am).

  • Curb Your Enthusiasm. A great show and apt theme for the Minx.

  • Sometimes you have to open up wounds for them to heal.

  • The percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average is 92.6% (highest in almost ten years).

  • NDX 1465 is first support.

  • My two favorite football teams: the Oakland Raiders and anyone playing the Broncos.

  • The dollar/gold action will be seen, in hindsight, as a major warning signal.

  • It's hard to root against Brett Favre right now.

  • Brokerage stocks are startin' to roll a bit.

  • Do you see the volume in Sirius (SIRI:NASD) today?

  • Thanks again for your patience as the Minyan professors rotate time away.

  • I hear Daisy also got her bell rung for New Year's. It was indeed a bang up year for Hoofs.

  • Print this out and read it when you can focus.

  • The only way to know that we take things for granted is for them to be taken away.

  • Breadth, despite the bear claws, remains 2:1 positive.

  • Neil Young is coming back to NYC in March.

  • I don't trust anybody that doesn't like animals.

  • A cocky Elmer. Now I've seen it all. Stamp a ticket.

  • Europe holding onto marginal gains.

  • I thought the Snoop/Nokia rap was well done. A bit shameless, but it shnizzled nonetheless.

  • May the best days of '03 be the worst days of '04.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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