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Random Thoughts

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I'm not left-handed either.

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  • Does it harm my manhood to admit that I'm psyched for a new Grey's Anatomy tonight?

  • If you're not reading Television JeffMacke's© Retail Round-up, you're missing the best Street beat around.

  • Duuuuude! Do you see those drugs? They've pushed through resistance at DRG 350! Somebody get me a Kit-Kat!

  • I couldn't quite understand why Phoebe looked at me last night and said "Models and bottles, baby!" This sorta explains it…and it's a pretty sad testament to the state of our debt-dependent world.

  • So, does anyone wanna gander a guess which sector is the top dog? Yep, the semis. Stocks (sectors) that open flat in a sloppy tape typically imply underlying demand.

  • "I opined at Minyans In Manhattan in December that I thought the dollar would be strong for the first half in 2007. My reasoning is that a) it is usually strong early in the year and b) everyone hates it and c) the best time for the buck is the third year of a presidential term. It then usually collapses after that. But we are at multi decade support. See it here. The divergence chart here shows the RSI making higher highs as the dollar re-tested lows. Very bullish action, IMHO, FWIW." Professor Bennet "Blue Steel" Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • Breadth is better than it was but it's far from minty. In fact, despite the upside skew from the fixed income jig, sinners are still beating winners 3:2 on the big board. And unless that shifts (in the context of a strong dollar), it doesn't bode well for further upside swell.

  • Carnies. Circus folk. Nomads, really. They've got small hands and smell like cabbage.

  • Here is the transcript from last night's NBR interview. It was spun as a bullish bent on the equity markets although I tried, really tried, to qualify the context through the lens of the U.S. Dollar.

  • We're calling all Minyans to join us tonight at the Red Lion for Charlie Mangano and his Rolling Bones. Not rolling as in "Man, Charlie's really old and they've gotta roll his bones into the joint." It's more of a play on words for the world's best Rolling Stone's cover band. This is our monthly Minyanfest so please consider it an open invite.

  • "For the second day in a row new PnF sell signals are leading new buy signals, today by a 12 to 0 margin. Overall sell signals are leading 19 to 5. This is how a context shift begins. As noted in the previous buzz post, the PnF bullish percent indicators are largely positive and showing demand in control. The shift from our current high risk field position to a lower risk zone will take time... and likely price." Pepe "I dig Newark Airport " Depew on today's Buzz & Banter.

  • Hey cookie, if you're not reading the Buzz & Banter, you're missing the best content in the 'Ville. There's a free two week soft trial (which is a great risk/reward) so give it a shot and lettuce know what you think!

  • We've discussed BKX 115 is THE level for the banks. Keep half an eye on BKX 117 as an interim level. It's where the piggies held since mid December and it's the right shoulder of short-term head & shoulders pattern (aka dandruff).

  • Inigo Montoya: You are wonderful.
    Man in Black: Thank you; I've worked hard to become so.
    Inigo Montoya: I admit it, you are better than I am.
    Man in Black: Then why are you smiling?
    Inigo Montoya: Because I know something you don't know.
    Man in Black: And what is that?
    Inigo Montoya: I... am not left-handed. [Moves his sword to his right hand and gains an advantage]
    Man in Black: You are amazing.
    Inigo Montoya: I ought to be, after 20 years.
    Man in Black: Oh, there's something I ought to tell you.
    Inigo Montoya: Tell me.
    Man in Black: I'm not left-handed either.

  • Minyan Mailbag

    Toddo, you mentioned that you prefer to buy names you like when they're beaten to a bloody pulp. Seems like you've been granted your wish with Weatherford. Talk about bloody pulps! Minyan Fritz.

    M-Fritz,

    I like to buy when I can, not when I have to. I didn't chase this stock into $47, choosing instead to remove emotion and practice proactive patience. I saw the importance of $40 as a technical support and, as it plunged through, I nibbled on my first lot of defined risk upside calls (half a position). This morning, as it continued to pulp lower, I added another 25% to my position and I'm keeping that last schnitzel in my pocket (for lower prices).

    Obviously, I don't "know" if this is gonna work but I've always been one to fade sharp moves. If I were playing with stock, I would implement stop losses to define my risk. As I'm playing with premium, I've got a bit more patience and a lot more leverage. The risk, of course, is continued jig in the dollar (which would deflate all asset classes). But, as I've got some cheap puts in the financial space, I'm able to sleep at night.

    I sometimes eat in my sleep, so you know, but that's a story for another day.


R.P.

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