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Random Thoughts


The greatest trick the devil ever pulled....


  • If a curve is flat, is it still a curve?

  • Hey Bill Meehan, I have two words for you. Atkins!

  • After giving a 'false' breakdown signal on the last trading day of 2004, the dollar index (DXY) has enjoyed a healthy bounce to start the new year. The upside jig has broken the downtrend line from early October and has set its sights on the 50-day (DXY 82.70). If the greenback can find traction through that zone, there is no tangible resistance until the 200-day comes into play at DXY 87.40.

  • The currency action has profound implications for the metals, which have begun a "crude type" correction. Gold put in the third "lower high" last week and has now broken below the December low (the 200-day will emerge at $410). Silver is trading below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages and, with this morning's slippage, has broken the uptrend from last May.

  • Is that a Jewish twelve feet?

  • Minyanville is proud to announce our alliance with Bloomberg. MVIL (go) will take you to our home page and you'll see content streamed through the day!

  • DeView from DeGraaf: "Though not enough to trigger volatility alerts, the NYSE and Nasdaq kicked off '05 with distributive price action, as energy and materials came under heavy assault. The energy charts remain in tact, but many of the material names are suffering from vertigo at these levels and continue to look vulnerable. The price action calls into question the notion and consensus view of increased global inflation, particularly with a flattening yield curve domestically."

  • The whole Amazon (AMZN:NASD)/brick and mortar dynamic has a certain vuja de ring to it. Like we've been here before but nobody remembers!

  • What's next? Phoebe shiatsu?

  • The truest way to honor a lost loved one is to live your life in a manner consistent with who they believed you to be.

  • Was everyone expecting a rally this week? (raise your hand)

  • Citi (C:NYSE) .is jiggy and leading the BKX back towards 104ish.
  • I enjoyed writing this morning's column but, believe it or not, I "machoed" it up a bit before posting to the 'Ville.

  • Chilling pictures (I cannot vouch for the legitimacy of the charity).

  • S's over N's (note the lethargy in the nets, telecom, semis and storage).

  • I've been patiently waiting for a downside disconnect to reestablish exposure in the metals, which I believe are in the early innings of a secular bull market. While I still assign a one in four chance of a "deflationary scare," my sense is that my vehicle will be silver and I'll initiate a partial position if we see a "five handle." That's not advice, of course, as each of us have a unique risk profile. Just sharing my process with the hopes that it adds to yours.

  • Do I think the dollar has room for a counter-trend rally? Yes. Have I thought that for a few months? Yes.

  • Keep an eye on Mr. Softee (MSFT:NASD) as it approaches the 200-day moving average.

  • "Peta had become "inordinately fat", "lazy in her habits" and "a source of embarrassment", which included repeatedly urinating in offices, one civil servant complained."

  • What the heck is eggplant anyway?

  • S&P 1193 (past resistance/support) is the next tangible support.

  • On your mark, get set...

  • Rude crude just popped a 'tude (+1.5%).

  • I'm long Mandy short Lindsay on a pairs. But I'm not Chasing Liberty...(yet).

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