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Random Thoughts


We know that the commodity action tends to lead the emerging markets---or is it the other way around?

  • If you haven't chewed through R-Cruise "5 Things" cameo yesterday, please take the time to do so. The column-particularly "Thing number 5"-is required reading for Minyans looking for honesty, integrity and homegrown insight on an important secular trend.

  • Mucho gracias to Minyan Eric Knight for coining the word: "Credipendency."

  • Hey, as long as we're on the love train, lemme again say how psyched we are to have Professor Dan Kadlec as our Personal Finance Editor. His column yesterday got to the heart of the savings matter. I'll also offer that in our A.D.D. immediate gratification society, Minyans weighed in and collectively set themselves apart. Nice.

  • Lest you were bored Monday or Tuesday--or if you misplaced your mojo--shake it off, find Stella and get your groove on. We've got earnings, economics, hawks, doves, Google, and a slew of other "to do's" on today's radar. The ticks will flicker quicker come 2:15 EST, once the text hits the tape.

  • In my morning missive, I offered my humble take on what lies ahead as Bennie and his Jets get set to vette. This morning's stronger-than-expected GDP aligns with that vibe, which could and should weigh on commodities. I pared and balanced some metal and energy "trading" exposure yesterday but wanna use dippy disconnects to add exposure.

  • The Chicago PMI put a damper on the dollar and a bid to gold, effectively offsetting the stronger GDP in the mindshare of the masses. They'll both pale in comparison to Big Daddy this afternoon.

  • Got Gold? A few Minyans pinged to ask why the yellow metal caught a hard bid this morning. My knee jerk response was the weaker dollar on the heels of the soft Chicago PMI. Here's another bent, courtesy of my good friend, Minyan Paul Forsyth. You gotta love a community that cares about sharing knowledge and insight. You got my back, I'll get your back. This is how it's gonna work...

  • So it's said--and before Television's JeffMacke® awakes from his cat nap--let me set the record straight. As I was chatting with Pepe, Macke face-pegged me with a Nerf football (no, I wasn't looking). As I pepped to administer his punishment--the Mandible Claw--I dropped to the carpet to gain leverage. My right elbow, which suffers from chronic bursitis, grazed the carpet, causing a golf-ball sized welt on the joint. SO, as MVHQ staffers construct our barbed-wire steel cage, I want to proactively offer my apologies to CNBC and Fast Money for any visible scars--and the possible absence--of the Lone Wolf.

  • I speak with some HUGE vol players who believe we're in the downside disconnect phase of a huge vol blow-off. I agree but, to be honest, I've thought vols have been too low for quite some time.

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey shows an increase in bullish sentiment to 53.3% from 52.7% last week, and a slight increase in bearish sentiment to 21.1% from 20.9% prior. Those expecting a correction dropped to 25.6% from 26.4%.

  • Have you ever seen a flick that rubs you the wrong way or puts nasty images in your brain? You know, like American History X when Edward Norton puts that dude's teeth on the curb? I was flippin' late last night and started watching Apt Pupil, which isn't a good movie, just a disturbing one. Why do I share this? Well, these are Random Thoughts.

  • Pavarotti must be pissed! We know that the commodity action tends to lead the emerging markets---or is it the other way around? Either way, given my sense that a hawkish tenor will accompany Bennie's bent, be careful with the emerging markets (EEM) in here.

  • I know averages are a sum of the parts but please note that Boeing (BA) is responsible for 30 DJIA points thus far today.

  • Charles Dickens would be proud! FOMC days are a tale of two tapes, with 2:15 serving as the toggle. We'll likely tug-o-war in front of that inflection and, once it hits, please remember that the first move is typically the false move.

  • Martha Graham, Martha Graham, Martha Graham! The Coldman's, er, Goldman was conspicuous in its weakness yesterday. Please keep an eye on the MOAT (mother of all tells) today.

  • If you're not reading the Buzz & Banter, you're missing the best, real-time content on the 'Ville. So you know…

  • I grew up idolizing Marcus. Pepe's was Joe Willy. Farley? The Hoff. Go figure.


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Position in energy, metals, financials, EEM, gold
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