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Random Thoughts

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Put limits on those orders if you're trading around the FOMC!

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  • Personally, I don't think sliced bread is so great.

  • Will this quell the swell in the metals?

  • The financials, market breadth and technical support (in that order) will serve as my mainstay post-Elmer tells.

  • Is this a Honeydew Presentation?

  • Google (GOOG) February paper is implying a 14% move on earnings today. That's 60 handles, my friends, which is a lot--even for Google. Please keep that in mind if you're planning on playing this name. And for all you vol watchers, Google's front month vol is pushing the NDX front month vol way up also - its 3.56 weighting in that index (thanks Minyan Kev).

  • President Fish and I invented a new word last night: "indarkable." Steven Colbert would be proud!

  • "Ford has Yeoman's word to do--i.e. get above the downward sloping 40 week moving average, get above the first downward sloping trendline, etc. But the stock is currently above its upward sloping 50-day moving average which is an early sign of some technical improvement. Positive divergence is evident via monthly price and momentum as the "retest" for price has happened at a slower rate and resulted in a higher low in the momentum indicator" John "if it ain't" Roque (don't fix it) of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • I still think silver struggles at $10 but how (if) you play is a function of your time horizon. For me, it felt a bit frothy so I pulled my personal trigga.

  • Feeling clumsy, Billy Ray?

  • While the tape squirms, the piggies are firm. Again, that should embolden Hoofy to hold dual support in front of Elmer. And once he takes his final bow, the financials will remain my key tell for the post-FOMC tape.

  • We're actively interviewing for summer interns and have a few good kids lined up. That said, a young applicant called (on the opening) asking (repeatedly) how to get to the office. Once I gave her the address, she asked which train to take. As I don't do trains, I again repeated the address. "But which train do I take?" I politely informed her that if she can't find her way to MVHQ, she's prolly not the right person for the job.

  • S&P 1275 and NDX 1705 should hold in front of Elmer.

  • It was the Moops, it was the Moops!

  • "Whatever happens to equities after the Fed announcement this afternoon, it's important not to let emotion get in the way. I want to remind everyone once again about the market's tendency to reverse its initial close after the meeting. For example, looking at the 16 Fed decisions over the past two years, only 3 times has the S&P closed in the same direction three days later as it has the day of the meeting (i.e. if the S&P closed positively the day of the decision, then it was typically lower 3 days later). This isn't just a recent phenomenon...the same holds true even going back 10 years. It's not a lock, but it's certainly consistent enough to keep in mind. " Professor Jason Goepfert on today's Buzz (12:22)

  • I've still got my spate of piggy puts although JP Morgan (JPM) is going the wrong way (how does he know where we're going?)

  • And just like that, SunMicro (SUNW) is back at $4.50. Like moths to a flame.

  • The VXO is quietly higher by 6%.

  • This is either my biggest nightmare or a blessing in disguise.

  • The trading Gods are having some fun with me on my silver stuff. It's all good and I have little regrets. I learned a long time ago that the quickest way to lose money is to complain after you've made money.


    R.P.

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Position in SUNW, JPM
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