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Random Thoughts


I'm seeing everything I want thus far today...including skepticism!


  • Headline risk!

  • "While it's not easy to see, market internals actually improved last week as the % of S&P Economic Sectors in positive year-to-date territory rose to 30% from 10% and the % of S&P Groups in positive year-to-date territory rose to 21% from 11.5%. These figures are not the kind of results that say get aggressive on the long side, especially since Energy as the top performing Economic Sector is only up 1.6% year-to-date, but they do provide some solace to the bulls as the figures did not deteriorate last week." -Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • This is nothing new in Red Dye.

  • The homies haven't played today as a function of the light new home sales.

  • We're still toying with the idea of a Super Sunday Minyanfest in NYC. Please ping us if you would have an interest in attending and we'll figure it out in the next couple of days.

  • Note the source but worth a read.

  • I offered on Friday that a failure today (on the heels of a "successful" Iraqi election) would usher in the first real towel-tossing of the year. The internals (better than 2:1 positive) and leadership (semis/financials) don't support a downside thwart but it's clearly on the minds of a hopeful Matador Crowd.

  • Snaps to Minyan Mike Shedlock for another awesome article.

  • "The Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 100 finished in the positive last week while the NASDAQ 100 sold off for a third week in a row. Our "Daily Squeezeometer" signals for the S&P 100 remain at sell/sell short from January 18, and for the NASDAQ 100 remains at sell/short from January 10. Our 14-day choppiness index for the NASDAQ 100 now sits at 46, up from 37 last week.This index ranges from 0 to 100, and the lower it goes the more a trend is evolving. Currently, it appears the downward trend for the NASDAQ 100 may be maturing. The 14-day choppiness index for the S&P 100 stands at 61, up from 49." Phil Erlanger on today's Buzz and via his excellent website.

  • I maintain that Syracuse needs three losses before March madness to win it all. Saturday's slip at Pitt was #2.

  • Yawn! The VXO is down 5% as vols lose Bar Mitzvah status.

  • Pecan pie is too seasonal. So are cranberries.

  • Exhibit A musta been something to see...

  • "Recall, we have often opined that once one of these stampedes begins (either on the upside or the downside) they typically last 17 - 25 sessions, with only one- to three-day counter trend reactions, before they exhaust themselves. By our count today is day 20, which is why in last Monday's missive we advised trading types to get their "buy lists" ready and why in Friday's verbal strategy comments we advised speculators to "pull the trigger" using the aforementioned hedged strategy [with married puts]."-- Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James

  • Laurie is up to his old tricks again.

  • The metal smelting is on anew as gold gets tagged and silver sniffs at the 200-day again ($6.60). $411 remains mission critical support for the yellow metal.

  • The brokers were under accumulation all day on Friday and continue their ascent during this merger Monday. XBD 149 (there now) is the last resistance before all-time highs (and a double top) at XBD 153ish.

  • I hope he had beer goggles.

  • We still have some unresolved (upside) gaps as a function of the (lower) openings on January 20.

  • Russell 605ish (multiple '04 tops and '05 support) is a level to toss on ye radar (if and when).

  • You will notice that we've made some changes to the Buzz & Banter tool including linkage to Collins Trading Radar and yesterday's Buzz). Most of these suggestions were made by our Minyanship and we strive to keep them--and you--happy in the 'Ville. If you have further ideas or suggestions, please don't be shy. We aim to please.

  • Speculators go short 10-year notes on the CBOT.

  • I think "virtual real estate" is a catch phrase that will proliferate in the years ahead as traditional advertising gets squeezed out of the marketplace. My good friend Kevin--a visionary in every sense--told me ten years ago that Madison Avenue would eventually fade away as DVRs and other technology allowed consumers to circumvent commercials. He was prescient on that observation and it's now starting to manifest in societal trends. Look for product placement to grow as an advertising technique in the years ahead.

  • Minyanville contributor Dr. Marc Faber is featured in Part III of the Barron's Roundtable noting CTX, HOV, TOL & LEN as his short picks and while he has covered those positions, he is looking to re-short them this year as he believes they are completely "overbuilt."

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