Thanks for the love, Toddo, we'll get 'em next week!
Well, say, you sure took me for one big ride
And even now I sit and wonder why
That when I think of you I start to cry
I just can't waste my time, I must keep dry
Well, we can say this about our business--it's not boring! As we discussed in the earlier posts, both Hoofy and Boo have a leg to stand on here and chances are, no matter what happens, you'll look back and say "yup, I knew it!" The reality is that there are good points on both sides of the compass--we just gotta know where to look so we don't get lost! There will be plenty of smoke signals next week so before you power down and focus on the important stuff, take a quick walk with me and let's see wazzup.
Beeks will be active all week starting with the ISM and construction spending Monday (exp. 53.7, .4%), Factory Orders Tuesday (.2%), ISM Non-Manufacturing Wednesday (exp. 54.1), Non-critter productivity and Jobless claims Thursday (exp. .7%, 390k)and, just in case we've got any energy left, the Unemployment Rate, Payrolls, Average Weekly hours, Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Cwedit on Friday.
Away from those exciting economics, the Bank of England and E.C.B will be meeting for a rate debate, Lehman will host an industrial conference, Thomas Weisel will have a tech party (QLGC, SAP, SEBL, TER, BEAS on Monday), UBS Warburg will have a healthcare fete and, not to be left out, Merrill will hold court with during their global pharma/biotech/medical device gig. Toss into the mix the continued earnings parade (Cisco on Tuesday!) and we've got the makings of another freak fest!
The Minx is a bit softer in the last fifteen minutes or so as chatter of a large sell program makes the rounds. I've got no insight as to whether it's true (those option guys are all shady!) but, either way, we've got some decisions to make. I hopped into two legs of my bear costume (50% conviction on the short side) right around S&P 850 and, well, we're right there. What I'm digesting right now (aside from that fish!) is whether I've got an adequate edge to go home furry.
While the near term is quite cloudy, I'm remain pretty grizzly in the grander scheme of things. I know that there are all kinds of opinions about what the market will do if/when we go to war and, hey, everyone's entitled to their own view. My gut, and it's just a gut, is that there are more issues surrounding Iraq now than there were the last go round. North Korea is a hornets nest, Iran is on edge, there's a potential for terrorist cells will wake up (if we attack)...in short, it's a nasty game of political dominos. No matter how hard I try, I have a hard time putting a positive spin on it.
That concern doesn't necessarily mean I wanna bet the ranch on the short side--it actually means I want to be a little tighter with my discipline. As such, I'm going to slip out of my bear costume, place it neatly in the closet and walk home tonight naked (sans bull/bear suit). Discretion remains the better part of valor (whatever that means!) and I can always dress up again come Monday (if I choose to).
In Minyanville news, the site will likely be down tonight and most of tomorrow as we implement our nifty online subscription solution. I've been penning this column for four months "on the cuff" (as my grandfather would say )and, as of Monday, the customs office will be doing their thing. Take me at my word when I tell you that we very much want to make Minyanville as inclusive as possible and we hope that shows.
In the months ahead, we've got some really special things rolling out and I really think you're gonna dig it. When it's all said and done, Minyanville will be more than just a "site"...it'll be an educational community that your whole family will enjoy. If you don't understand what I'm talking about, don't worry. You will!
Other than that, I want to resend some white light to Jordan's pop as he fights the good fight. JJ is a longtime reader and good friend. When he called me this morning with tears in his eyes, I was immediately brought back to the heavy heart I had when I held Ruby's hand in passing. This tape is hard and this business is frustrating...nobody's gonna argue about that. But if you let it consume you and dominate your thoughts day and night, then you've lost more than money--you've lost time. And time, my friends, is the most precious of commodities.
Have a peaceful weekend.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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