The Upside Edge
Hmm, Toddo...I'm not so sure about this one.
Have you come here for forgiveness?
Have you come to raise the dead?
Have you come here to play Hoofy?
To the lepers in your head
Ping pong anyone? I'm tellin ya, this tape is something else! Hoofy and Boo were standing on either side of S&P 850 trying to see who was gonna blink first--and everyone else was waiting with their fingers on the trigger. After the pressers punched the doggies out of the gate this morning (when AMAT blew and the BKX broke), the tape bungeed back and caught the shorts with their pants down. Now, as we edge towards the weekend, we've got some decisions to make.
This is what's going on inside my head (at least, this is what I can write on a family website). We know the constructive elements in play: the stochastics are clearly bullish, the oscillator is very oversold and the tape has (thus far) shrugged off bad news. We also know the problematic elements of the action: the tape is (technically) broken, S&P 870 is BIG resistance, the geopolitical landscape is jittery, there's no visibility in the fundamental arena and I've got cookies (carbs) staring me in the face. What, prey tell, is a trader to do?
First of all, we should toss our cookies (figuratively speaking of course) and ask ourselves one simple question: what's our edge? I have obvious concerns about this market but, as a function of the above mentioned reasoning, I can "see" both sides. As such, I'm attempting to trade with defined parameters on my risk profile--I have two legs in my bear costume (added near S&P 850) and, in my last post, I set an 855 stop loss (futures).
While I was/am toying with the idea of sticking with Boo and fading (read: selling) more as we approach S&P 870, I'm trying to police myself against being too stubborn. We've had some decent schnitzels of late and it only takes a moment of indiscretion to give it all back (and then some). The sirens of greed is a constant tune in the minxy market and we've got to know when to turn a deaf ear.
With all of that said, and because I can't shake the feeling that there's one more trick up the Minx's sleeve, I'm going to nudge my stop loss level up to S&P 860. Call it poetic license...call it bad discipline...call it a gut feel. It's freaky Friday, Mon Frere, and there's a lot of trading left in the session. Hey Fokker...what's for lunch?!?
Hope you're jinglin' baby. Be back.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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