pass the nuts
Man, I hope the BKX doesn't tick at 825--that's ALL I need right now!
After yesterday's fugly session, the critters were pretty frazzled and instead of hitting the gym, they called an audible and met at the Four Seasons. Over Grey Goose apple martinis and some schnitzel, the Menagerie talked about life, love and, of course the market. The conversation went a little something like this:
Boo: Yo Daisy, you want some fries to go with that shake? I mean, seriously...hubba hubba!
Hoofy: I'm in no mood, furball...if you mess with this bull, you'll get the horns. Back off...I'm warning you!
Sammy: (sliding up between the them and smiling) Whoa...relax fellas. I know times are tough and tensions are high but we're at a critical juncture. Now, more than ever, I need you guys to remain lucid. Emotional decisions have a way of coming back and biting you in the can.
Snapper: That's easy to say, Sammy...but we're talking about real money here with real consequences! Metaphorical imagery aside, how do we stem the bleeding? This is no joke!
Sammy: Well, first and foremost, think about what your goals are before entering the market. Toddo seems to think that a tactical deployment of capital (against a backdrop of capital preservation) is an intelligent approach in this environment. Of course, his methodology isn't for everyone but perhaps there are "take always." For instance, once upon a time, Snapper, maybe you were tempted to "throw some exposure" on into the close...just for schnitz and giggles. Perhaps that's not prudent anymore--perhaps you should be more discerning with your exposure.
Daisy: Well, if Toddo's right, money's gonna get scarcer in the years ahead as the deflation thesis kicks in. If that happens, we're gonna need to milk our savings for all they're worth!
Boo: Exactamundo! You see, Daisy (pulling his chair around to hers), people are conditioned to believe that the market is gonna turn--it's just a matter of time. For the last few years, if you listened to corporate America, the recovery has been "two quarters out." These guys didn't see the meltage coming, how the heck are they gonna time the recovery? There will surely be bullish phases but it's important to remember how you feel now when those times come.
Hoofy: Come on now, kid! It's exactly that defeatist attitude that's necessary for the bottom to be put in, I hate when...
Boo: (clearing his throat) Don't you mean "a" bottom? THE bottom will occur when bulls like you stop trying to call it! The opposite of love isn't hate, the opposite of love is apathy and we're a loooong way away from an apathetic tape. There will be trading rallies--maybe even stiff ones--and you can play them at your own risk--but save your love for Daisy and chocolate, Hoofs--there's no place for it when trading.
Snapper: You think we're gonna get the bounce soon? Lately, I've been falling pray to these Soupy Sales---I'm starting to think that maybe it's me!
Sammy: (clearing his throat) That Beeks guy will be buy in the morning with the Personal Income and Spending (exp. .2, .7), the Charles Woodson/Betty Ford Confidence number (exp. 83.5) and the Blackhawk Purchasing Manager (exp. 53) and that'll set the early tone. After that, it's a psychology game--what kind of risk are traders going to want to go home with?
Snapper: Well, Toddo took his bear costume off into the close yesterday...do you think he's getting long here?
Daisy: I think he said something about "being in a position" to trade from the long side although I know he's quite conscious of the potential for further downside (after the technical breaks). He started talking about a Shim Sham thesis two days ago...if you haven't seen it, take a peek, beak!
With that, the smoky bar began to fill up and the critters started to mingle with the crowd. Hoofy and Daisy engaged in a debated discussion on the antics of the Oakland Raiders, Sammy and Snapper bellied up to the bar and nibbled on the bar nuts and Boo, dressed to the nines, was chatting it up with a beaver named Pugsy in the corner. Life was good for the critters and it had nothing to do with the market. They had their friends, they had their health...it could be worse.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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