Random Thoughts to Start the Day
Europe is marginally higher ahead of our economic numbers!
- During the scary melts of 2000-2002, sharp Snappers were feathered throughout the slide. Hoofy will argue that the same dynamic makes sense the other way.
- U2's Go Home (Live from the Slane Castle in Ireland) and Coldplay's Live 2003 are the two most recent additions to my DVD collection.
- The Nortel (NT:NYSE) will likely squeeze some of yesterday's Foundry Networks (FDRY:NASD) telecom pressers. These stocks are still the furthest thing from "cheap."
- $6.3 billion of inflows (this week). (read:demand)
- There's over twelve deals on the IPO calendar next week (read: supply).
- You can read Fleck's Rap every day. Just click here!
- Why does the paranoid conspiracy theorist on my shoulder think Elmer knows robust economic (payroll) numbers are "out there."
- Gold got a bit too mainstream and the specter of higher rates (ie- stronger dollar) caused the recent bottleneck. Define your horizon and understand your investment objectives. The definition of an investment should never be a trade that's gone against you but, at the same time, you shouldn't be trading your investments.
- It's a little early for Brittney to be having a mid-life crisis.
- This current rally has rendered many of the traditionally useful technical tools "useless." I'm not sure if it's a function of the hedge fund bubble or a Fed that sees trouble (and is desperately pulling out all the stops). It just goes to show ya though--If you don't stay humble in this business, the Minx will do it for you.
- The best shot the Dem's got is if Edwards jumps on Kerry's ticket.
- Casey, Judith, Len, Allan and Fokker--thank you ever so much. I couldn't do it without ya.
- During the bubble, analysts recreated metrics to justify not missing the upside. When P/E's weren't applicable (many companies had no E), they focused on page hits. When page hits weren't enough, they created eyeballs. I'm fairly sure that if the bubble lasted to, say, Autumn of 2000, we woulda gotten to eyelashes.
- I played hoops last night for the first time since my back injury in November. It stands to reason that I matched up against a 6'6" 250 lb. former NFL player. (eight boards, two points and two points allowed...Szubpt!)
- Wednesday's DUCK was a combination of bubbly sentiment, an actionable level (S&P 1150) and a perceived catalyst (Elmer). It's surely premature to call it a paradigm shift but, with the conditional elements as they are, there is a statistical probability that it is. What chance you assign to that probability is a function of your individual metric assimilation.
- Do you really think Buffett and Soros are out of touch? I don't...it's just hard to play poker with a joker. I mean, how are you supposed to compete with Elmer when he keeps manufacturing his own chips?
- There isn't a day that goes by that I don't think of my grandfather and feel his warmth from above. It carries me through the tough stretches and makes the good times better.
- I'm looking forward to hosting a few cold ones with the University of Pennsylvania finance club tonight. I sure hope they take it easy on me!
- There are two upside levels that are important for Boo. A close under S&P 1133 on Friday sets up a key reversal on the weekly charts. At a minimum, the bears need to ensure a lower weekly close with a settlement under S&P 1140.20.
- The S&P, so you know, found support Thursday at the 1121 (a .38 retracement of the post-Saddam capture range) and the BKX (thus far) found support on the post-Saddam trendline. (Thanks Jason Roney for these levels and yes, we'll have charts on the 'Ville soon to aid in the educational process).
- Isn't it time you bit the bullet and scored a Minyanville fleece?
- From high to low, the Nazz futes (what fute?) corrected 5%.
- Breadth was f-u-g-l-y yesterday. Watch it as a key tell today.
- You said Whatchamacallit. That's right.
- Take a good, hard look at the site 'cause in 17 days, it's gonna have a massive facelift. Better yet, this Buzz & Banter tool is the cat's meow--it'll allow us to offer dynamic educational observations real-time. Kinda like you're looking over our shoulder and reading our IM chat!
- Is it getting better? Or do you feel the same? Does it make it easier on you now that you got someone to blame? (U2)
- The most bullish tangible case I can find is Brian's analysis of the corporate bond market. I understand the thesis that the rollover of the debt mountain (to a later maturity) may buy us time but I think it just prolongs the inevitable. Further--and this isn't gonna win me a lot of fans--I think the next recession begins with a "D."
- The Carolina Marlins.
- Fokker isn't in the office yet--something about a transportation issue. I haven't gotten the full scoop yet but please know that the Chronicles will be muted today. Thanks (on his part) for understanding!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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