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Swan Song!

By

Where's the love, Toddo?

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We came in spastic, like tameless horses
We left in plastic, as number corpses
And we learned fast, to travel light
Our arms were heavy but our bellies were tight


(Billy Joel)

It's decision making time in the city of critters as we limp towards the closing bell. The S&P,BKX and SOX are in the process of making fresh breaks (S&P through 850, BKX at 825, SOX through 280). The question, my friends, is how to approach these breaks? As you know, I've always been more of a fader than a presser (I like to sell hope and buy despair). There's surely some technicians out there who are initiating shorts right here (on the breaks) but that's not my game...not when we're this oversold.

I'm going to (humbly) remove my leg from my metaphorical bear costume and go home naked. There's a very real chance that we've got a fair amount of room (on the downside) but, at a point, I'm gonna look to turn my hat around and trade from the long side. I'm not there yet, mind you, but if the Shim Sham plays out, we've got some further pain before a sharp rally. I want to be in a position to leg into exposure for that lift.

Either way, I'll come in tomorrow and take a fresh, clean look. I've got drinks with the big dog tonight (that's MISTER Puglisi to you) and I want to focus my attention on the conversation and the Grey Goose apple martinis...not on my overnight risk.

I'm gonna hop such that I can get this post out to you before the bell. I can't tell you what to do, fellow Minyans, but I can say that if you're unsure, do a little less and err to the side of preserving capital. For, if nothing else, this too, shall pass.

Have a peaceful night.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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