The Kinky Minx
Now miss sweet little soft-core pretender,
Somehow baby got hard as it gets.
With her black leather chrome spiked suspenders,
Her chair and her whip and her pets.
Do you know that after almost every post, Snoop Tone pings me to let me know that I have issues? Ya think? My five best friends are fictional critters that are metaphorical representations of my thought process! I definitely have issues...and so do I, and so do I, and so do I! Hey Tony--now that we've solved that mystery, let's see if we can find dig out some value in this shinola and pass it along to our fellow Minyans!
The Minx continues to tempt us with the forbidden fruit and she seems to be having a good time. Yesterday, she spanked the tape in the morning before the afternoon liftage. Today, she aroused the bulls with early pleasure but, alas, the celebration was premature. The geopolitical concerns got loud, the tape get waxed and, well, here we are.
The action since has been lethargic and my eyes keep wandering between the breadth (2:1 negative), the SOX (it's starting to snow), the financials (BKX, while oversold, will "break" anew at 725), and Fokker (he's starting to mumble-not a good sign). There were a few times today when I had tinglings (to act) but, for the most part, I've done very little. I had a game plan this morning (if the S's got to 870) but we didn't get there. I've learned that opportunities are made up easier than losses and, as such, I haven't "pressed" in an attempt to make up for lost ground.
The zillion dollar question is: what now? Contrary to popular opinion, the tape's future path isn't set in stone yet. Our success, as traders, is predicated on making educated bets and identifying situations with an advantageous risk/reward profile. The trouble with this juncture, cookie, is that it's hard to assign probabilities to such a wide array of potential outcomes. As such, we must compensate for that uncertainty by exercising a higher degree of discipline and patience.
If you pull up a 5-day chart of the S&P and draw a trendline from Monday's lows thru yesterday's lows, you'll find that it extends to S&P 850. This zone (S&P 845-850) is pretty important in a lot of ways. If we can't hold it, there's no support until the October lows. For the record, I do NOT think we'll break the Oct lows during this leg of the sell-off--we're too oversold and, with enough traders keying off that level (if and when), the bounce will be self-fulfilling.
Alas, that's a ways away and it's not today's business. First things first, I've got to decide what to do with my bear leg. We caught a 20 handle fade and, well, if we're gonna hit for average, that's a solid single. I'm balancing my desire to book it, Dano, with the fugly action (internals, SOX) and the looming unknowns (geopolitical, economic data). As it stands, my inclination is to stay the course.
I hope this finds you well, my friends. Good luck!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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