Night and Day
You can call me Le' Turtal! Look at those bourses!
We weren't in love oh no far from it
We weren't searching for some pie in the sky summit
We were just young and restless and bored
Living by the sword
It's another action packed morning in Minyanville and as I was collecting my thoughts, Hoofy walked into my office, closed the door, and sat on my couch. "Dude," he began, "you sat here yesterday and opined that a (20 handle) rally to S&P 870 was quite possible and yet, you left me twisting in the wind. What gives?"
I looked Hoofs and smiled. "There are a lot of ways to skin a Minx, my friend, and one's style has to be an extension of their thought process. My sense was (is) that the bounce is technically oriented and, as such, I chose to wait until the tape lifted (to my level) before slipping a leg into my bear costume. Was it the right thing to do? Well, I guess we'll find out soon enough!" With that, Hoofy snorted (can you believe it?) and left my office--which is good because there's a lot going on and I wanted to get to work.
The sell-side research is heavy this morning as Lehman upped the oil service sector, Goldman upped the broadline retailers, Merrill upped AZN, Monty upped MRK and punted UMC, Solly upped INTU, CS First Boston upped SNE, the mighty Bear upped Siemens and dumped BUD and Morgan upped VZ . Man, that's a lot of uppers! Meanwhile, on the other side of the coin (literally), AOL lost a total of $98.7 billion in 2002 and that's the biggest downer in Corporate history. Yes, that's billion....with a B!
On the news front, this morning's economic numbers were a relative non-event and Beeks will now focus his attention on tomorrow's releases. While he's doing that, I'll be watching the SOX (293 is the first trendline resistance but 320 is THE trendline resistance), the BKX (725-750 is the range), the S&P (the bears should defend S&P 870) and the NDX (there's a gap from 1040->1060, if and when).
Tells today will include the semis (MXIM), Citigroup (financial proxy), GE (cyclical proxy), storage (tech sentiment), WMT (consumer), the dollar (traders expecting a rally) and, of course, the internals. My stochastics, so you know, have confirmed buy signals in the S&P, DJIA, SOX, XBD (brokers), DJIT (trannies), CMR (consumer) and CYC (cyclical). Before you pop the champagne corks, however, please take the time to read Snoop Tone's excellent piece this morning--it's tremendous!
I hopped into work today with one leg in my metaphorical bear costume (added as the Minx pushed towards S&P 870). I'm quite conscious of the stochastic buy signals but my sense was/is that the tape would fail the first time they tested resistance. If we take out that level with vigor, I'm gonna rethink my short-side thesis--or should I say, the timing of it. Remember, you can try anything in this business as long as you're disciplined.
See you after the opening, friends...hit 'em hard.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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