By Todd Harrison Jan 03, 2006 12:15 pm
I gotcha back, brother...
- I sat at the base of the Arenal for five hours in open-mouthed amazement. I finally turned to my Queen and said "It's like a giant pimple on the face of the earth." She looked at me and said "You call yourself a writer and that's the best you can come up with?"
- Metals (XAU +4.5%) and Energy (OSX/XOI +4%) stick out like two green thumbs up. I told Hoofy to get used to it as I still think these trends are more than flashes in a minxy pan.
- The banks, brokers, retailers, homies and biotechs opened pink in a jiggy green tape. That's typically a sign of supply.
- "The D-J transportation Average (DJTA) has been making new all-time highs. Meanwhile, the DJIA has gone nowhere for two years and last week actually broke below its recent reaction low (10730). That breakdown stopped us out of our remaining Dow Diamonds (DIA/106.95) trading position. The non-conformation between the DJTA and the DJIA is troubling, especially considering the much broader based Wilshire 5000 Index has given a sell signal. Ditto the NASDAQ 100, which is why we were stopped out of that trading position as well. Consequently, even though we are fairly fully invested in the "strategic" side of the portfolio, out of all the "tactical" trading positions we recommended back in mid/late-October the only one left is the one-half position in the Bank Index (BKX/103.84). Hereto, if the BKX breaks decisively below its recent reaction low of 102.73 we will sell this position, in keeping with that old stock market axiom, "If Santa fails to call the bears will roam on Broad and Wall." -- Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James
- The more folks I speak with outside the financial industry, the more apparent it becomes that people need a trusted choice for the Wall Street voice.
- Getting ready on New Year's eve, I stumbled across the Costa Rican simulcast of the Raider-Giants game. It's comforting to know that that Oakland sucks in multiple languages.
- The VXO (volatility index) is up 20% since Christmas but it's still not a teen.
- If you don't know, don't guess. The ability not to trade will remain as important as trading ability in 2006.
- If I were a Hussman...
- A huge Minyanville shout out to Vitaliy and his Katsenelson clan on the birth of their baby girl!
- Note Pfizer (PFE)(+2%) as it held the bottom of the aforementioned gap.
- "According to COT (commitments of traders) data just released Friday, the hedgers or 'commercials' are getting more and more short the S&P and to an even greater extent the Nazz. Large AND small speculators have gotten more long the market. This sort of data has usually ushered in a decline in stock prices, so let's see if this early rally indicated by higher futures sticks...." -- Bennet Sedacca on this morning's Buzz (8:40)
- If Hoofy can't hold 1245--or if he can't capitalize on the perceived inflows--I can't imagine sentiment will stay snazzy for long. This is a big juncture, both from a time and price perspective.
- The more we know, the more we realize how little we know.
- So, it's about 2:00 AM the morning after New Year's. I'm sitting on a lounge chair and reminiscing with my Queen when, out of the corner of my eye, I see something slither about two feet to my right. Just as I ask "Is that a...," we hear the rattle. It was pretty spooky but we musta had the Sammy karma thing workin' for us.
- I suppose it could have been worse.
- I still think that multiple contraction remains the fundamental trap door. Not today's business, of course, but something to file in the back of your crowded keppe.
position in metals, energy and PFE
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