By Todd Harrison Jan 03, 2006 9:22 am
Welcome back Minyans!
Welcome to the jungle
We got fun 'n' games
We got everything you want
Honey we know the names
(Guns N' Roses)
It was a swingin' scene in the jungles of Costa Rica as the critters and I revisited some roots. After a few mindful days at Manuel Antonio, eye-popping visuals of the Arenal, walking on clouds in Monteverde and capping it off in Guanacaste, the metaphorical five gathered high atop the canopy at the Tree Top Cafe. There, as we sipped sangria and soaked it all in, the conversation took a turn for the tape.
Hoofy: Well, that wasn't exactly the Santa Claus rally I had in mind. But if December's rally arrived in November, perhaps the December action was akin to last January's reality check?
Snapper: The S&P ended the year thisclose to the previous acne level. I gotta think the Matador Crowd leans against perceived inflows and defends S&P 1245 out of the gate.
Sammy: Yeah, you're prolly right--Europe is green, the futures are pointed higher and there is a defined technical level below. We could--or, should--see an attempted lift as portfolio managers, no longer schvitzing about every single basis point, loosen their risk grips.
Boo: Sure--but what about the herd that loaded the boat for the year-end lift? Will they sit with exposure or cut and run now that '06 has begun.
Sammy: Prolly a bit of both, Boo, as the new year typically ushers in a slew of rotation and positioning. Look for sectors to stand out while keeping an eye on the broader technical framework.
Hoofy: Indeed, the near-term will be noisy as we sift through the drift. From 40,000 feet, however, I'll offer that I'm still sweet on the metals and energy. I think they have secular winds at their back and will trump tech and financials when the dust settles a year from now. I would also keep an eye on pharma, particularly as Pfizer fills the gap in and around $23.
Daisy: Fair 'nuff. But time is tickin' and there are alotta Minyans anxious to get their feet out of the '06 gate. Let's raise our glasses to the year that was, take a mindful moment to appreciate what is and take a deep breath as we ready for what will be. We've got a lot to be thankful for and a lot to look forward to.
With that, I pulled a wad of colones outa my army shorts, paid our tab and climbed down the strangler fig towards our humble abode. If we work to live rather than live to work, time away from the flickering ticks is an important part of any trading process. I inhaled deeply and took one last mental image and began the descent. It was a new year, I knew, and the critters and I have a lot to do.
Good luck today.
position in metals, energy, pharma, pfizer, financials
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