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Random Thoughts


The N's and S's held right at last week's lows.


  • My holiday respite, while bookended by some fun stuff, centered on a spiritual refocusing in the Arizona desert. "A lot" has happened in the last few years and I'm not sure I ever digested the subconscious ramifications. I didn't get to my "roots" in a week but I certainly peeled off alotta "dead skin." And for that, I am thankful as we collectively turn the corner and take the next step of our fantastic journey.

  • "Our most important call for 2005 in our opinion is the reemergence of Japan and the Nikkei. While 2004 was disappointing as little progress developed after the acceleration wall out of the lows in 2003, it appears to have been a large consolidation or bullish wedge formation that has recently been confirmed with a breakout. More importantly, this 2004 consolidation appears to be the right shoulder of a 4-year head and shoulder bottom formation, its completion or validity will be confirmed with a breakout through the neck-line at 12,400. It's a trade with very good risk profile and one we will be leaning into for 2005." Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers.

  • The uber-svelte and always dapper Tony Dwyer mentions in a note this morning that, after a potential pause, his fundamental and technical "targets" for the S&P both arrive at 1350+.

  • What's next? An insiders guide to trading?

  • While I sense that both the metals and energy will have a good '05, I offered on the Buzz that I still think that the former needs an "energy type" correction first.

  • Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder "stands on the corner" this morning to opine that the Dow, Nazz and S&P all remain strong and, while they're near-term overbought, remain above key moving averages. As his longer-term indicators are NOT overbought, he feels that a corrective phase (if it were to occur) wouldn't be overly dramatic. Further, using the S&P as his guide, he offers that the early November '04 breakout (above the March '04 high of 1163) "projects" a still yet-to-be reached target of 1265. He also sees support for crude around $36-38 and support for gold around $420-425.

  • Somebody cold call the Klumps!

  • Causation? Crude is down 4% and both the trannies and the broader tape are digesting supply.

  • Market internals have settled into a 2:1 negative stance.

  • A serendipitous lesson plan.

  • BKX 104ish continues to provide a branch on the side of the cliff. It was my key this morning (during the probe) and it held where it had to (thus far).

  • Volatilities are creepin' back up the curve as the VXN pops 6% and the QQV tacks on 8%.

  • Gold (-$10) broke through the December lows.

  • Big downside reversal in the semis today--the SOX started the session above the 200-day and is now clinging to the uptrend (from the September low) and the 50-day (SOX 425).

  • Two words: draft pick.

  • Jeff "as good as it gets" Saut of Raymond James offers some of his always salient insight during his morning missive. Among other random musings, he senses that investors should be scale-down buyers of "stuff stocks" into the new year. He also believes that the global economy is slowing down, the dollars decline is not over, dividends will be an important component of total return and that we will have to work extremely hard in the upcoming year to find special situations in a fully priced stock market.

  • Meehan, doing the right thing, is out this week as he tends to his business.

  • Place this in the "just so I said it" file but I am more excited now than ever before in my life. It's hard to put into words exactly how I feel but suffice to say that Ruby wisdom (thinking positive) is the dominant theme of this young year. There is a LOT to do but the purpose of the journey is the journey itself. As I just offered to Collins and Kevin, we're gonna get to where we need to go but we're going to be mindful of the process involved.

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