By Todd Harrison Jan 29, 2003 3:10 pm
This one's for you, Daisy!
Shrinking in the sea so cold
Topless ladies look away
A he-man in a sudden shower
Shelters from the rain
I'm Soooooorry! I didn't want to start a commotion with my last random thought and I certainly didn't mean to create a visual of you-know-who on a billboard in Times Square! Rumors are vicious on Wall Street--I mean, jeez, Shrubby and Lappy just hit me up with a rumor about ME! I told my VEGAS BUDDIES that I'd be very careful about stirring the pot...I gots the power of the pen and a good memory!
Elmer came and went without shaking up the mojo. Can you imagine if the big guy raised rates and then said psych! It would almost be worth the heart palpitations to see the Minx flip out. Alas, he didn't, and we're back at our same dilemma...the markets are firm, the internals don't support it, we're approaching big resistance and the stochies are confirming buy signals. Hey cookie--is it hard enough for ya?
I've been vocal about my desire to identify situations with a high quack count (all the ducks lining up) and, as you might have surmised by the above paragraph, the Minx is sending mixed signals. I can't shake the idea that the rally is a fade (read: sale) and, despite the pending buy signals, my inclination remains the same: The rally fails, we get a nasty sell-off and, once the dip buyers are shaken to the core, a spirited rally ensues.
Is that threading the needle too much? Old school readers will recall that I had a similar premonition during the October lows--the S&P ticked at 775 and the VIX hit 50--and I had bullish tinglings but didn't bite because I thought it was too cute and scripted. Yeah, it's a shame--I ended up backing into the Razor Burn thesis which, while it eventually worked, was a long, hard journey.
So, the question is, how do you play this juncture? You already know my response--there is no blanket response. Each of you must identify a horizon (very important) and act in a manner consistent with your particular circumstances (do you want to hit me yet?). WITH THAT SAID, I'm likely gonna follow my girthy gut and add a leg into the bear costume when we get to the breakdown point.
One last thing before I go--I'm seeing a HUGE buy side interest (20,000 anyway) in the Intel February 17.5 calls. It started yesterday and it's continuing in full force today. I'm not aware of any story (yet) but I wanted to pass along the flow. Trader Toddo would view this as a contrary indicator (bearish) but, hey...take it for what it's worth.
That's about it, my friends. I'm gonna try and sneak a haircut in before my big dinner as I get charged by the follicle--and should be able to scrape by with pocket change! There's few things as important as family and, while my mother will insist that I don't see her enough (and she's probably right), tonight is all you, Carole!
Good luck into the close.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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