Elmer hits the scene and offers that while the powers will leave rates as is, he no longer feels comfortable with the "considerable period" phrase. It wasn't too long ago that he assured us that rates would, in fact, remain considerate and investors are seemingly shocked by the about (two) faces. Confusion breeds contempt, I suppose, and the knee jerk reaction is "What tha...?"
While the script still has plenty of story line (and the first move is usually fadable), this clearly caught the market off guard. The greenback is flying, fixed income got thwacked and while gold is still somewhat bold, the metal issues have issues (well off their highs). Equities, as I'm sure you can see, are on a crimson ride with the downside tide and have breached our levels (S&P 1140/NDX 1515). I'm eyeing the rate sensitive names--banks, brokers, homies--as my main tells (legitimate concerns will surface there before the rest of the tape) and the breadth (almost 2:1 negative) for signs of traction or further slippage.
There is still Snapper potential (he's pesky but I don't "think" so) but this policy shift, if you can call it that, may be the excuse that some holders are looking for (particularly with the Minx so extended). Trade consistent with your means and make decisions that are lucid and well thought out. There's no looking back, Minyans, so be smart and stay sharp.
I'll be back.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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