Stock and Putz
By Todd Harrison Jan 28, 2004 8:44 am
Hump? What hump?
Good morning and welcome back to the track. Yesterday's slip loosened the grip of the bovine choke hold on the Minxy cruise ship. While it may be too soon to declare a monsoon, the equity tape was disheveled and strewn. "I know that there's been a big ding to my rep," the toothless Boo said without all that much pep, "but I'm still in the game as I study and prep and every long trip must begin with a step!" Is this crimson tide fun a one shot now done or have the bear giggles only begun? It's Hump Day anew in the Minyanville zoo so let's hop on board like a smart kangaroo!
If dinner tastes better after a long wistful wait, saliva is building at the Red Dye home gate. For eleven (count 'em!) months, any and all dips have been mere radar blips. Has buying the pullbacks become a conditioned response? Pavlov's dog couldn't hold a candle to this dip shtick! The only question now is if this dog has fleas and, more importantly, when she's gonna roll over and play dead.
It stands to reason that the pickup in volatility across asset classes will soon trickle into stocks. Just yesterday, Hi Ho Silver was up and away 4.5%, Gold glowed for 2% and, not to be forgotten, crude has been rather rude of late. The great equity vol crash of 2003--and yes, it was a crash--has not only pitch-forked many option players, it's imbedded a certainly complacency in being short premium. It's the same dynamic as equities (and the same implications), but this particular instrument has the potential to turn a stun into a run.
Last night's earnings were mixed as Electronic Arts (ERTS:NASD) and Amazon (AMZN:NASD) listen to the early chin music and Broadcom (BRCM:NASD) does the huggy shuffle (read: squeeze). Also, for all you holiday travelers, Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY:NASD) is down more than 20% on earnings (or lack thereof) so watch for possible fuel leaks in the transports. Last, but certainly not responsible, Sir Elmer will be pootin' on da riiitz today at 2:15. Anything other than "considerable" accommodation will be a shocker.
We power up the minxy beast this morning to find Europe marginally higher, the dollar with a little greenback, gold flat as Fokker's first girlfriend and the stateside futures peering up. After closing on the low (high) tick, higher (lower) futures aren't necessarily a good thing. I would expect a probe, Doc, as the bears sniff out the support du jour at S&P 1140 and NDX 1515. Also, please be aware that Snow White will likely dwarf liquidity today as traders take the break from the trading ache.
Good luck today.
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