Ants in your Pants!
Hey Toddo, the no carb diet is a lay-up...after the Bucs knocked your teeth out, you can't chew anyway!
Take these chances
Place them in a box until a quieter time
Lights down, you up and die
(Dave Matthews Band)
The day continues to fetter along and the Minx has decided to give the upside the 'ol college try. I've always been brutally honest with the readership and, as such, I must communicate my current dilemma. We're edging up towards resistance in the S&P...but the stochastics are kitten's whisker away from giving a buy signal (in an oversold tape). That's a technical conundrum if I've ever seen one! What's a Toddo to do?
The answer to that question is a function of another question: what's your frame of reference? Remember, there are trades for the cycle, trades for a phase, trades for a trend and schnitzels for the nuance--understanding your investment goals (and strengths) is the first step at successful decision making process. In other words, if you try tackle all of these horizons at once, you'll end up partying with John Nash in a rubber room!
Whenever I'm "unsure," I like to walk through the indices and "pull back" through the charts. I'll look at the intraday "gip" on Bloomberg, pull it out to a five day, then a 21 day and, finally, a "GP" (six month). Typically, by the time I'm done walking through the subsectors, something resonates in my mind's eye. If it doesn't, it's a clear signal to pull back the reins and take a deep breath.
What's my current posture? My predication is to fade (read:sell) rallies as I sense that that the pops are technical in nature (alleviation of the oversold condition). However, the field position of the stochastics is such that I'm not ready to jump back in the bear costume yet. It's the age old dilemma and, consistent with my desire to identify advantageous risk/reward, I'm exercising my right to do less until I get a better feel. I understand that some readers want a more definitive read but I can only communicate my honest take with the hope that it adds value at some level.
In the event that you're over-focusing on Dubya, this is your friendly Minyanville reminder that we remain on earning's alert. NVLS and VRTS highlight tonight's releases and they'll (likely) help set the tone for the semis and storage sectors, respectively. In addition, Elmer and his cronies will swing by tomorrow with a rate decision and, while NOBODY is expecting a snip, it's certainly worth a mention in this space.
Finally, and you can file in the "who the heck cares" draw, I'm going to begin my "no carb" diet tomorrow with the hopes of shedding a ten lot. If any of you would like to join me on my endeavor, please feel free--especially if you're lurking around the Puglisi trading floor. I figure, if I can get everyone to shun cookies and pizza, my chances of a successful one month run will be increased dramatically! Engine room....more steam!
Good luck into the close.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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