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Winds of Change


If you get three strikes in baseball and four downs in football, how come you get unlimited chances to call a bottom?


The traffic-lights, they turn blue tomorrow
And shine their emptiness down on my bed
The tiny island sags downstream
'Cause the life that lived is dead

(Jimi Hendrix)

It's lunchtime in Minyanville and my mood has officially upticked. Why? Well, for one, I've got a plate full of food in front of me and there's nothing like a good meal in the middle of a trading day. Secondly, and probably more important, I understand that those who live in the past are destined to repeat it and I don't have the time (or energy) to do that. There's work to be done, Mon Frere, and we need to shake off the distractions and focus on the task at hand.

Everyone I speak with is trying to game tonight's speech and, while I'm hearing that Dubya will focus more on the domestic agenda and less on Iraq, I'm not sure if that constitutes a discernable edge. We all know that the tape is oversold and, invariably, there will be a bounce at some point. What you've got to do is identify a horizon (for your exposure) and the parameters of your risk profile. Once you do that, cookie, you can trade 'em seven ways till Sunday.

The biggest drags on today's tape are the SOX (dandruff alert) and MSFT (hearing that the window opened) and, for the most part, that's quelling the bullish tinglings when they arise. I'm also quite consious that S&P 865 resistance a stones throw away and that doesn't offer a whole heckuva lotta upside. Couple these inputs with the geopolitical uncertainty and lack of visability (from corporate America) and fading rallies seems like an intelligent methodology.

On the other side of the coin, we're pretty oversold and my stochastics are edging (ever so slowly) towards buy signals. Further, when there are this many balls in the air, there's always the potential for a hike up the wall of worry. I can't get my arms around the short base (getting mixed inputs) but I know that it's more substantial than it was two weeks (and 10%) ago. Confused? Don't be--if you're too smart to buy 'em and too scared to short 'em, flatten out and wait for a better pitch.

Lastly, I want to once again thank the readerhip for their fantastic feedback on the news from our customs office. We were pretty psyched about having the opportunity to lower the passport fees (subscription) as our goal is to make Minyanville as inclusive as possible. The only thing we ask is that IF you're diggin' the critters, take the time to spread the news to friends and family--it would mean a lot to us. Thanks!

Hope this finds you with some jingle in your back.

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