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The Bacharach Attack

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Gulp! Without the semis, the upside doesn't stand a chance!

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Raindrops keep falling on my head
Just like the guy whose feet are too big for his bed
Nothing seems to fit, oh
Raindrops keep falling on my head


(Burt Bacharach)

Alright sports fans, after scouring the street (and taking my requisite Raider lumps), I've come up with a few more data points that might be useful. Before we start discussing the Flow, Alice, I want to draw your attention the SOX index--it's acting mighty heavy in an otherwise jiggy tape. The TSM capex forecast isn't helping the cause and it's a teardrop away from violating the neckline of our head and shoulders.

Meanwhile, my contacts are telling me that the short base is relatively high--around 7 on a scale of 1 to 10--although Elmo at Warburg doesn't see it (and he's pretty good). Regardless, they all agree on one thing--the selling today is from conventional accounts (read: real money) and there's supply in the marketplace. Obviously, that's subject to change but, as it stands, it doesn't bode well for Hoofy's rally thesis.

What am I doing? Less...but my right hand is firmly up as I watch the action unfold. An oversold reflex rally is likely at a point but, gun to head, we're not at that point yet. The action in the SOX is troubling and my sense is that the semi's could lead us lower in the uber-short term. As always, just one trader's (humble) opinion.

Hey Fokker--what's for lunch?
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