Europe sure acts dry considering yesterday's meltage!
It's a frigid morning in Minyanville but I've got to tell you, there's no place I'd rather be. The critters have been scurrying about as they ready for another day in Freakdom but, before we move forward, I've got to get something off my chest. If my information is correct--and I believe it is--some Raiders spent the week sneaking out after curfew to indulge in all sorts of partying. It's one thing to lose the game...but conducting yourself in that manner is moronic and, quite honestly, it disrespects the institution of professional football. I'm not taking anything away from the Buc's and their fans--you guys came to play and it showed--I'm just disgusted that my team would embarrass themselves with classless acts of selfishness.
With that said (whew!), it's time to focus our attention on the day ahead. Thus far, the sell-side research is more manicuring than anything else and I'm not seeing anything that stands out. The early morning chatter is focusing on tonight's State of the Union speech and the macro ramifications as, well, that's what's driving the price action. Everyone and their sister knows that Dubya's gonna talk tough. The question we must ask ourselves is whether that's baked into current levels--and do we have a discernable edge in making that decision?
I spoke of S&P 850 in this morning's opening missive and, yes, I see it at 848. I always allow for a little wiggle room and, for purposes of my work, I don't consider that level broken yet. That's the first support on the big board and, if breached, the next discernable level is the October lows (S&P 775). On the flip side, S&P 865 (past support) is now the ceiling. In techland, we're sitting right on trendline support in the NDX. If you draw a line from the low in November through the low of December, you'll see exactly what I'm talking about. If we don't hold this zone, NDX 950 is the only magnet between here and the October lows.
Tells today include the semicaps (on the heels of TSM's report), the brokers (Pru cautious), the internals (until it stops working), the consumers (MRK and PG earnings), crude (war proxy), the dollar (U.S sentiment gauge) and the horsemen. While the tape is currently oversold and the stochastics are edging towards buy signals, they're not there yet. As always, I'll keep you up as they progress.
One step at a time, Minyans, as we figure it out and stake our claim. As it stands, I'm in watch mode although my interest will likely get piqued (on the long side) if we get further meltage or a snapback to S&P resistance (on the short side). In the interim, I'm looking for situations and practicing the discipline that I so often preach.
See you after the opening.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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