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Beazer on Deck


The one homies position I have held onto following my capitulation consists of some way out of the money put LEAPS on Beazer Homes (BZH). I have often stated, and continue to believe, that Beazer has its own set of problems independent from what may come of the "housing bubble".

Estimates for BZH are: Q1 Rev.: $1.011 bln EPS $4.36
Q2 Rev.: $1.022 bln EPS $4.38
FY '05 Rev.: $4.531 bln EPS $19.99

As with the other homebuilders, I am expecting they'll beat EPS but could easily miss on revenues. They might give guidance, but would not surprise me if they pull an MDC Hldgs (MDC) maneuver and just say that everything is good and there is nothing to worry about.

All that, IMHO, is not nearly as important as the trend of order numbers. Beazer's Crossman acquisition (Mid-West region) appears to have been a complete bust. The only thing that has kept BZH going has been the "Left" Coast and the anecdotes of where that's heading need not be repeated.

From the "one spreadsheet is worth a thousand words category" if you click here you'll find my very own home-cooked Daisy-verified tabulation of BZH order numbers sliced in a few different ways.
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