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Random Thoughts


This week's action is either a great trading tape or a recipe for whippage, depending on whether you're a step ahead or a step behind.

  • Mozart, once the envy of the iguana community, learns the hard way that humility befalls us all.

  • S&P 1432 is the over/under for alotta funds. Technicals assume added importance during uncertain times. Despite one day wonders such as yesterday, the three sisters (DJIA, S&P, NDX) have "one-ish" percent '07 gains to date. Yes, alotta portfolio managers are confused and, as a result, they're trading reactive.

  • This week's action is either a great trading tape or a recipe for whippage, depending on whether you're a step ahead or a step behind. If it's the latter matter, take a step back and a deep breath. Pressing, guessing and stressing is no way to go through life, son.

  • Thy precious shares are flirting with the aforementioned XAU 140 level. As I own the metals-including Golden Star (GSS)-I'm keeping half an eye trained to that price point.

  • Mea culpa on not recognizing the potential--nay, the probability--that the tape would trade as strong as it did the session following the State of the Union. It seems as if the world's largest thermometer always finds a bid after Dubya steps on stage.

  • Minyan Mish offers some further thoughts on yesterday's Wow-atility Buzz.

  • One, cut a hole in the box…

  • I was walking home last night and ran into three people--on three separate occasions--that I went to Syracuse with. They all looked, how shall I say...old? I can't help but wonder if they thought the same about me. Trading ages you faster than the average bear.

  • I woke up on the wrong side of bed this morning and have been playing ketchup ever since. It's times like this that I like to remember what my ol' dad used to say: "What the heck are you doing in the bathroom day and night? Why don't you get out of there and give someone else a chance?"

  • Is this the Matador City anthem these days?

  • Will we hold or will we fold (at S&P 1432)? Our mainstay tells--with the notable exception of the semis--support the origami scenario. Breadth is 2:1 negative, financials are funky and the emerging markets (EEM) are off a deuce.

  • Have you chewed through the first slew of MVTV videos?

  • A Minyan asked what I mean when I say I'm "trading around" cores. Case in point is Weatherford, which I dig as a driller. I own calls in the name (vols are cheap) and trade the gamma. Sometimes that means shorting some stock against the options and setting up the "V-shaped" risk profile.

  • Only 2,499,999 pure plasma pleasure seekers to go!

  • "When are you going to learn? Last time you disrespected the Gators, you lost our bet on the Final Four and National Championship. Do you have to learn another lesson? Here's the wager: $250 to Ruby Peck Foundation from me if OSU wins the National Championship. If the Gators win, you apologize on the site and vow to never disrespect the Gators again and you include one random thought per day for 10 straight trading days giving some praise of the University of Florida ." Minyan Charlie Poe

    I'm Sorry! I vow never to disrespect the Gators again!

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…

    • Do two breakfasts cancel the necessity of lunch?

    • Do you see the 10% "upside retracement" in volatility?

    • Yet...the VXO is still at single digits?

    • Are you watching HGX 240 as acne support for O-Dog and the Homies?

    • Has anyone seen Farley and Ian Benardo in the same room at the same time?

    • Is that a double top (negative) in the trannies?

    • Is anyone else hearing continued chatter of blood in the hedge fund streets?

    • Did you read President Fish's Telecom Take?

    • Do you see the XAU back at its technical inflection point (140)?

    • Is the SunMicro trade to $8 too easy?


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Position in sunw, wft, gss, financials, metals, energy, iguanas
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