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Buzz Bits

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Earnings Report - MV News - 4:19 PM

  • Corning (GLW) reported Q4 EPS of $0.22 (in-line) on revs of $1.20 bln vs $1.21 bln cons.The company guided Q1 EPS to $0.22-0.24 vs $0.22 cons on revs of $1.20-1.25 bln vs $1.23 blnc cons.

  • Sun Microsystems (SUNW) reported Q2 GAAP EPS of ($0.03), ex ($0.04) net of items and not comparable to $0.01 cons. Revs were $3.34 bln vs $3.50 bln cons. Gross margin was 42.6% vs 44.3% exp.
  • Centex (CTX) reported Q3 EPS of $2.52 vs $2.48 cons on revs of $3.74 bln vs $3.83 bln cons. The company guided '06 EPS to $9.65-9.85 vs $9.77 bln cons and '07 EPS to $10.75-11.25 vs $10.75 cons.
  • Computer Associates (CA) reported Q3 EPS of $0.24 (in-line) on revs of $967.0 mln vs $968.4 mln cons. Billings were $1.29 bln. The company guided Q4 EPS to $023-0.24 vs $0.25 cons on revs of $975m-1.0 bln vs $1.00 bln cons.


Say what? - Kevin Depew - 3:51 PM

A look at opinion, analysis and commentary from around the world:

  • "Iran's oil exports will shrink to zero in 20 years, just at the demographic inflection point when the costs of maintaining an aged population will crush its state finances," according tothe Asia Times in "Why the West Will Attack Iran."
  • In today's Wall Street Journal, Robert Rubin says "We must change policy direction" to meet the competitive challenge posed by China and India, among others.


Biodome - David Miller - 3:41 PM

ImClone
(IMCL) has a nearly $3B market cap on the strength of a drug that sells about $400M a year now and is declining in sales because patients and doctors decided they hate the rash. Amgen's (AMGN) panitumumab is looming as competition, billed as a "less-toxic" version. YM Bioscience's (AMEX:YMI) nimotuzumab has no rash or GI toxicity. If "nimo's" efficacy in early trials is confirmed in pivotal trials, both Erbitux and p-mab will be abandoned by the marketplace.

I share this quick outline of this situation because there are several people who seem to think ImClone deserves a fairly significant multiple above the current market cap. If ImClone gets bought significantly above where it is now, I think that's a clear signal the feeding frenzy I've said is coming in the sector has arrived.

position in YMI

Mini-Minyan Mailbag - Kevin Depew -
2:57 PM

Prof. Kev-

Your posts today have pointed to caution signals for FCX and CH. Because both of these are so dominated by copper, how about a look at the copper chart when you get a chance?

Minyan JC


MJC -

What's not to like about copper? Nothing, that's what. The price of brass's redneck cousin never goes down, as my interpretation of the three-year chart here conveniently shows. For reasons that no one quite understands, since it must be mandatory that every citizen in China spend 80% of their yearly income on copper cable and flexible wires, Chinese traders have been known to short copper even when it results in their disappearance. Grim stuff.

Taking a look at even more serious charts of copper, the results are almost identical to my savvy, yet crude, rendering linked above. The PnF chart shows buy signal after buy signal. I thought the continuous PnF chart might finally break heading into today, but no such luck. Meanwhile, the daily chart of the March contract shows six separate potential TD-Sequential upside exhaustion signals with no downside resolution. Not advice, but the bottom line is copper does not trade like it used to. It only goes up.

Personally, I am very interested in selling things that only go up. But I have not yet. taken a position in copper.

Boom, Done! - Todd Harrison - 2:03 PM


I've been trading for over fifteen years and I'm still not used to these midday mind melds. This particular tet-a-tet was of great importance on a few fronts and was, without question, a profitable use of time. Not in a net worth way--more in a self worth sorta way. We tend to forget the need for balance when the flicks are tickering but it's the grist of life.

Turning my eyes (not arms) towards the tape, a few things pop into my mind. The first is Keira Knightly as she's....wait, wrong screen. Here we go, some purebred vibes on the tape:
  • Market internals remain firmer than...well, they're firm. Second day in a row and something that Snapper is focused on.
  • The financials have been laggy all session and IF (big if) we fail, they'll likely lead the bleed.
  • I don't think failure is in today's script as the latest spate of earnings has led to more rotation than migration.
  • More likely than not, a retest of our aforementioned levels (S&P 1275/NDX 1705) will provide fresh clues to the next fuse.
  • Hugs not drugs? Pharma acts fugly but again, the ability to hold DRG 318ish will leave the door open for some reverse dandruff.
  • And finally, if you're diggin' the 'Ville (come on, admit it!), we'll flip the switch for a gratis trial for your entire firm. It's our way of saying "please" and "thank you" at the exact same time. (Gesundheit!)

    R.P.

Flashback! - Bill Meehan - 2:00 PM


This day in market history...
  • Closing levels 9 years ago found
    • DJIA: 6696.48
    • S&P 500: 770.52
    • Naz: 1363.83
    • Crude: 23.85
    • Gold: 352.40

This day in Minyanville history...

  • In '05, Prof. McGuirk wrote Deal or Die about the metal market and filled it with some entertaining football commentary from down under
In other news...
  • In 1848, James W. Marshall discovered a gold nugget at Sutter's Mill in CA, which led to the gold rush of '49 and subsequently the San Francisco 49ers.

Q.What do Texas Instruments, Motorola and Intel have in common? - Phil Erlanger - 11:22 AM

A. Low short ratios and low short intensity levels( ex Intel). Motorola sports a short intensity level of 0% with a short ratio of 1.27. Next, Intel sports a short ratio of 1.01 with an intensity level of 70%. Last, Texas Instruments sports a short ratio of 2.37 with a short intensity level of 38% (chart). The lack of shorts in these names with a lack of buying interest has caused each of these names to sell off after earings. It is interesting to note that the Semiconductor group however does not have light short selling as it sports a short intensity level of 54.91%.

Caution: Volatility - Adam Warner - 10:49 AM

Here is another reason why comparing Volatility Indices from one era to the next can be hazardous to your health. A mere flick of the composition of the underlying index can drastically morph the behavior.

Take the Nasdaq 100, which added Google (GOOG) to the club about a month ago. The VXN has risen from roughly 14 to a high of above 20.5 yesterday. The VIX has acted relatively well, but with a much tamer lift from 11 to a 14.5 high.

Now it could be a quirk of timing, as GOOG volatility has exploded lately, but it could also lead to a permanent return to the traditional premium the VXN held over the VIX. Permanent that is until the next reconfiguration.

Position in GOOG

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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