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Point & Go Figure: FCX, YUM, AMGN


Risk continues to heat up as the context shifts to negative.


Market Overview:
The short-term conditions, extended and in high-risk areas, crossed the threshold to negative territory on the NYSE last week. The percent of stocks above their 50-day moving average for the NYSE and Nasdaq are now both negative, reversing down from high-risk levels and crossing below 70%.

According to figures from Investors Intelligence, the High-Low Index for the NYSE and the Nasdaq are both at extremes and on Monday declined significantly, despite the positive tone to the day based on the broad indices. These indicators are pushing their highest levels since this past summer, while continuing to show a long-term divergence indicative of an important near-term top forming.

The Nasdaq-100 (NDX) Bullish Percent is also officially negative now, reversing down from the high-risk 70% area. This suggests supply is now in control of the NDX, possibly an important harbinger of more difficult times considering the NDX has outperformed versus the S&P 500 and Dow since the NDX Bullish Percent reversed up on May 18, 2005. Over that span, the NDX was up more than 11%, compared to 6.6% for the SPX and just 2.1% for the Dow.

The bottom line is that the context continues to shift to negative. Short-term indicators are negative, or in high-risk territory and declining. Intermediate indicators are negative and deteriorating, and the long-term indicators, though still positive for the NYSE and NASDAQ Composite, are in high risk areas and showing the long-term trend of diminished participation still intact.

Charts of Interest:
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX)
(Chart courtesy Dorsey Wright)

Yum! Brands (YUM)
(Chart courtesy Dorsey Wright)

YUM is on a PnF sell signal, but it has fallen to a significant long-term support level, meanwhile...

Yum! Brands (YUM)
(Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)

YUM has also just registered a TD-Sequential 13 "buy" signal on a daily chart.

Amgen (AMGN)
(Chart courtesy Dorsey Wright)

AMGN is on a PnF sell signal, but above the long-term trendline and now at a support level at 74, meanwhile...

Amgen (AMGN)
(Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)

AMGN also recently registered a TD-Sequential 13 on a daily chart, though possibility for new 9 setup remains in effect.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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