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Random Thoughts

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Remember, successful trading is all about the quack count-when the ducks align, the odds of success are much higher.

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  • Is THIS the reason crude and metals are jetting higher?

  • The banks (BKX) and brokers (XBD) are both dancing in Red Dye. Nothing fugly, but certainly worth watching as they've been great intra-day reads on the market.

  • Our other tells have yet to dwell---breadth is working 2:1, the dollar is lower (DXY -50 bips) and the emerging markets are green.

  • Remember, successful trading is all about the quack count-when the ducks align, the odds of success are much higher.

  • With today's jig in the commodity complex, the CRB is testing the all-important 293 level.

  • A few thoughts on commodities:

    • I don't "know" if geopolitical tensions are fueling the run in energy and metals but they certainly aren't hurting it. Particularly after the recent liquidation removed that premium.

    • Textbook technical analysis dictates that the time to sell (buy) a breakdown (breakout) is upon the retest of that level. In that vein, commodity bears are licking their chops.

    • I can "see" both sides---the structural, secular bovine winds and the undeniable ursine opinion of the chart. Hence, defined risk makes sense on both sides from a trading standpoint.

    • From an investing perspective (longer-term), me love these long time. It's a different conversation, a different approach and a different strategy. Alas, that's a conversation for a different time.

    • As I've got exposure in both buckets of my book, I'm gonna trade a bit "in between." Some trailing stops on the trading stuff and proactive patience on the put-away positions.

  • The homies poked through a MASSIVE level at HGX 240 (We highlighted it on the Buzz before it happened). Through a pure technical lens, they've got clear technical sailing to HGX two-fitty.

  • Have you seen the MVTV beta? We've gotta lotta original programming in the works but we're officially "up" and officially "excited."

  • A rose by any other name wouldn't lose its bloom.

  • Ruby taught me that all we have is our name and our word and, as such, we're a reflection of the company we keep. So, while this is my mother, please know that I wouldn't highlight her beautiful jewelry unless it was special. Just a little something to think about with Valentine's Day around the bend (Minyan testimonials are available upon request).

  • Drillers, Spillers and Thrillers

    Minyans know that I've been walking through a real-time trade in Weatherford (WFT), a driller I'm particularly fond of. When it broke uber-support at $40--and plunged 7%--I started a long call position. And as it fell further, I scaled into more calls. That's how I like to trade faves--buy 'em when they're hated.

    We knew that THE test for WFT would be when it retested the breakdown level ($40) and sure 'nuff, we're there now. As discussed in real-time, I made a token sale (of the 'in the hole' buys) yesterday and kept the majority of my position.

    I haven't touched my position yet today--I have a comfy position where I can sell higher or buy lower, which is the litmus test of any trading posture. I'll likely toss on a trailing stop on another tranche of my holdings--pure discipline--but, as usual, I'm writing it before I'm doing it.

    Why? That's how we roll in the 'Ville.

  • "When are you going to learn? Last time you disrespected the Gators, you lost our bet on the Final Four and National Championship. Do you have to learn another lesson? Here's the wager: $250 to Ruby Peck Foundation from me if OSU wins the National Championship. If the Gators win, you apologize on the site and vow to never disrespect the Gators again and you include one random thought per day for 10 straight trading days giving some praise of the University of Florida ." Minyan Charlie Poe

    I'm Sorry! I vow never to disrespect the Gators again!

  • R.P.

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Positions in energy, metals, financials, WFT

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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