Have you ever seen a wall of worry stacked so high?
Alright, very funny guys! I had dinner last night with my pals and they kept referring to "something" that I thought was a specialty drink. Naturally, as a former bartender, my curiosity was piqued and I decided to ask my fellow Minyans in today's random thoughts. Uhh...either I'm still wet behind the ears or some of your fellow readers have a nasty sense of humor because I found out what "it" was and, man-it's definitely not a specialty drink! If you don't know what I'm referring to, GOOD....let's move on and talk tape!
The question that I keep weighing with regard to my bull costume is one of timing. Often times, when trading a thesis, my horizon is anywhere from a week to a month. For purposes of my current posture and as a function of my pending journey, however, my time frame is shrinking with each tick of the clock. I'm well aware that the majority of you have an elongated time frame but, as I always say, I can only tell you what I'm doing and hope that you'll be able to extract nuggets of value.
While I plan to dance naked (sans costume) in San Diego, I don't want you to view it as a cop out. I've never been shy about putting my thoughts "out there" and you would know if I had a strong feeling on the "war trade." My inclination is that the market will trade lower if we "go in" but it's difficult to make that call without knowing the field position (of the market) when it happens. In other words, if we're down huge into the event, you could see a reflex rally and if the tape runs into the event, chances are that it'll get smoked.
I know that's not the definitive answer you're looking for but the truth is nobody knows, for sure, what the market will do-and anybody who tells you otherwise is lying! I've been harping on the tactical trading approach this year and I continue to feel that finding an edge-whether it's technical, fundamental, structural or psychological-will serve us in good stead. Trying to game geopolitical events (and the Minx's reaction to them) is the antithesis of that methodology.
No matter how hard I try, I can't seem to get comfy in this bull costume and I don't know if that's pure conditioning or a telling sign. Either way, we're getting close to the caravan kickoff and, as such, I'm going to slip one leg out of my posture (leaves 25% conviction on the long side). I'm going to ride the remaining leg for a bit longer as the tenor of the market has improved marginally, the breadth in both sectors is positive and the financials have found (temporary) traction.
I'm gonna jump and eat some lunch (shocker), so let me sign off for a bit and focus on this menu. It's hard for me to hide my childlike excitement about this weekend so, hey, I'm not gonna try! It's been a long time since I've worked to live (not lived to work) and if I'm going to practice what I preach, I've got to start some time-and there's no time like the present!
I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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