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Just Swim, Baby!


Thanks for the vote of confidence, Hoofy!


Can't you feel 'em circlin' honey?
Can't you feel 'em swimmin' around?
You got fins to the left, fins to the right,
and you're the only bucs in town

(Jimmy Buffett)

Good morning and welcome back to the shark infested waters. After enjoying the perfect weather and catching some nice trade winds earlier in the year, the bulls felt Mother Nature's wrath during this latest financial storm. The bountiful bovine attempted to brave the elements but, as the ship began to spring leaks, their loyalty was put to the test. The mutiny spread to their bounty and, before long, Hoofy was asked to walk the plank and take a dive.

He couldn't help but feel a certain sense of irony as he stared down into the abyss. Life had been quite good and it looked like January was going to be clear sailing. Unfortunately, when he put his right hoof down to enjoy the view, he got shipwrecked by a slew of negative outlooks in corporate America. Before he knew what hit him, he was reeling in disbelief-and red muck!

The bear camp was only too happy to hurry the process along and who could blame them? After three week's of taunting, teasing and tugging, the furry freaks were finally back in black and they smelled blood. The war drums beat loudly in the background as the ursine circled in for the kill-and it didn't look good for our hoofed hero. As the closing bell tolled loudly, short sellers swarmed to the scene for some cheeseburgers in paradise.

A funny thing happened on the way to the feast. A slew of "solid" earnings painted the after-hours tape and the futures popped faster than Boo's button. While there's considerable fat in the market and ample meat on the short-side story, the bears may have jumped the gun on the way to the table. Indeed, if the goal is to sell hope and buy despair, the furry followers have likely missed the "easy" meal.

I've awakened from the dark side of the country with both legs in my metaphorical bull costume and both eyes focused on the task at hand. Apologies on the late day appendage add but, truth be told, it was supposed to print at 3:45 and I "fat-fingered" the post. Either way, my reasoning is the same: I saw the shorts frothing and, as a zagger, I sense a lil' squeeze play coming.

While I understand the desire to look forward and set up for the "war trade," I haven't had any epiphanies as to how it's gonna play out-and I hate trades without an edge. I'm currently postured as a bear in bull's clothing and, as such, I've got some decisions to make. I will be out tomorrow and Monday (traveling days) and discipline probably dictates staying naked (sans bull costume) if I'm unsure. If the tape pops, tart, I'll likely scale out of my duds and if it drops, pop, I'm likely going to get stopped faster than a Tampa Bay offense.

Good luck today...and play like a Raider!

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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